Big Dance | 1-3-1 Sports

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 15th (Final)

Posted on March 15, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 031415

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin

The 2 Seeds

Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

The 3 Seeds

Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, North Carolina

The 4 Seeds

Baylor, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, Louisville

The 5 Seeds

West Virginia, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas

The 6 Seeds

SMU, VCU, Providence, Georgetown

The 7 Seeds

Michigan State, Butler, San Diego State, Xavier

The 8 Seeds

Oregon, Iowa, St. John’s, Cincinnati

The 9 Seeds

Dayton, Ohio State, NC State, Davidson

The 10 Seeds

Colorado State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Temple

The 11 Seeds

Purdue, Texas, BYU, LSU, Boise State, Indiana

The 12 Seeds

Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Wyoming, Wofford

The 13 Seeds

Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington

The 14 Seeds

Northeastern, UC Irvine, New Mexico State, North Dakota State

The 15 Seeds

Albany, Belmont, UAB, Texas Southern

The 16 Seeds

Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Hampton

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

BYU, LSU, Boise State, Indiana

First Four Out

Mississippi, UCLA, Miami (FL), Old Dominion

Next Four Out

Tulsa, Murray State, Texas A&M, Rhode Island

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (4), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Providence, Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana

Big West – UC Irvine

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – UAB

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Manhattan

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State, Wyoming

Northeast – Robert Morris

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Patriot – Lafayette

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, BYU

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 11th

Posted on March 11, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 031115

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova

The 2 Seeds

Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas

The 3 Seeds

Maryland, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor

The 4 Seeds

Notre Dame, Louisville, Northern Iowa, North Carolina

The 5 Seeds

West Virginia, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas

The 6 Seeds

Georgetown, SMU, Butler, Providence

The 7 Seeds

San Diego State, Iowa, Michigan State, VCU

The 8 Seeds

St. John’s, Ohio State, Colorado State, Cincinnati

The 9 Seeds

Oregon, LSU, Dayton, N.C. State

The 10 Seeds

Xavier, Georgia, Boise State, Davidson

The 11 Seeds

Oklahoma State, Texas, Mississippi, BYU, Purdue

The 12 Seeds

Temple, Indiana, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Louisiana Tech

The 13 Seeds

Valparaiso, Harvard, UC Davis, Georgia State

The 14 Seeds

Central Michigan, Northeastern, Eastern Washington, N.C. Central

The 15 Seeds

Belmont, Albany, North Dakota State, New Mexico State

The 16 Seeds

Coastal Carolina, Manhattan, Texas Southern, North Florida, Lafayette, Robert Morris

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

BYU, Purdue, Temple, Indiana

First Four Out

Texas A&M, Old Dominion, UCLA, Illinois

Next Four Out

Miami (FL), Tulsa, Stanford, Murray State

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, N.C. State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Manhattan

MAC – Central Michigan

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Northeast – Robert Morris

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Patriot – Lafayette

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Mississippi

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, BYU

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 7th

Posted on March 7, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 030715

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

The 2 Seeds

Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas, Gonzaga

The 3 Seeds

Maryland, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Utah

The 4 Seeds

Baylor, Wichita State, Oklahoma, Louisville

The 5 Seeds

North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia

The 6 Seeds

SMU, Providence, Georgetown, Butler

The 7 Seeds

San Diego State, Ohio State, St. John’s, Dayton

The 8 Seeds

Iowa, Michigan State, VCU, Colorado State

The 9 Seeds

Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Oregon, LSU

The 10 Seeds

Indiana, Georgia, Mississippi, N.C. State

The 11 Seeds

Xavier, Boise State, Davidson, Temple, Purdue

The 12 Seeds

Texas A&M, BYU, Valparaiso, Wofford, Murray State

The 13 Seeds

Louisiana Tech, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Iona

The 14 Seeds

UC Davis, Georgia State, Central Michigan, South Dakota State

The 15 Seeds

N.C. Central, Eastern Washington, Coastal Carolina, Northeastern

The 16 Seeds

New Mexico State, Albany, Texas Southern, North Florida, St. Francis (N.Y.), Bucknell

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Temple, Purdue, Texas A&M, BYU

First Four Out

Texas, Illinois, Tulsa, Stanford

Next Four Out

Old Dominion, Miami (FL), UCLA, Rhode Island

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, N.C. State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Big East – Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Central Michigan

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, BYU

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 4th

Posted on March 4, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 030415

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

The 2 Seeds

Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas, Gonzaga

The 3 Seeds

Maryland, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Utah

The 4 Seeds

Wichita State, Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia

The 6 Seeds

SMU, Georgetown, Butler, Providence

The 7 Seeds

VCU, San Diego State, Ohio State, St. John’s

The 8 Seeds

Dayton, Iowa, Michigan State, LSU

The 9 Seeds

Colorado State, Indiana, Oklahoma State, Georgia

The 10 Seeds

Cincinnati, Mississippi, N.C. State, Oregon

The 11 Seeds

Xavier, Boise State, Purdue, Temple, Texas A&M

The 12 Seeds

BYU, Davidson, Valparaiso, Wofford, Murray State

The 13 Seeds

Louisiana Tech, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Iona

The 14 Seeds

Central Michigan, UC Davis, Georgia State, South Dakota State

The 15 Seeds

N.C. Central, High Point, Northeastern, New Mexico State

The 16 Seeds

Albany, Sacramento State, North Florida, St. Francis (N.Y.), Bucknell, Texas Southern

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Temple, Texas A&M, BYU, Davidson

First Four Out

Texas, Tulsa, Stanford, Illinois

Next Four Out

Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Miami (FL), Rhode Island

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, N.C. State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Big East – Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Sacramento State

Big South – High Point

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Central Michigan

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, BYU

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – February 25th

Posted on February 25, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 022515

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2 Seeds

Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas

The 3 Seeds

Iowa State, Maryland, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

The 4 Seeds

Utah, Louisville, Baylor, Northern Iowa

The 5 Seeds

Wichita State, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina

The 6 Seeds

SMU, VCU, Butler, Georgetown

The 7 Seeds

San Diego State, Michigan State, Indiana, Mississippi

The 8 Seeds

Providence, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Colorado State

The 9 Seeds

St. John’s, Iowa, Cincinnati, Dayton

The 10 Seeds

LSU, Xavier, N.C. State, Georgia

The 11 Seeds

Texas, Purdue, Oregon, Temple, Texas A&M

The 12 Seeds

Stanford, Illinois, Valparaiso, Harvard, Wofford

The 13 Seeds

Murray State, Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Louisiana Tech

The 14 Seeds

Central Michigan, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, Georgia State

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, N.C. Central, High Point

The 16 Seeds

Northeastern, Albany, New Mexico State, St. Francis (N.Y.), Texas Southern, Bucknell

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Temple, Texas A&M, Stanford, Illinois

First Four Out

Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, BYU

Next Four Out

UTEP, Rhode Island, Davidson, Miami (FL)

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – High Point

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Central Michigan

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Stanford

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – February 17th

Posted on February 17, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 021715

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2 Seeds

Wisconsin, Villanova, Arizona, Kansas

The 3 Seeds

Utah, Louisville, Iowa State, Notre Dame

The 4 Seeds

North Carolina, Butler, Maryland, Oklahoma

The 5 Seeds

Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Arkansas, Baylor

The 6 Seeds

West Virginia, SMU, VCU, Oklahoma State

The 7 Seeds

Providence, Ohio State, Georgetown, Indiana

The 8 Seeds

San Diego State, Texas, Dayton, Michigan State

The 9 Seeds

Temple, Mississippi, Cincinnati, Colorado State

The 10 Seeds

Georgia, St. John’s, LSU, Xavier

The 11 Seeds

Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Texas A&M, UCLA

The 12 Seeds

Stanford, N.C. State, Valparaiso, Harvard, Murray State

The 13 Seeds

Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Louisiana Tech

The 14 Seeds

Bowling Green, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, William & Mary

The 15 Seeds

N.C. Central, South Dakota State, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast

The 16 Seeds

Louisiana-Monroe, Albany, New Mexico State, St. Francis (N.Y.), Texas Southern, Bucknell

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Texas A&M, UCLA, Stanford, N.C. State

First Four Out

Miami (FL), Tulsa, Old Dominion, BYU

Next Four Out

Oregon, UTEP, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, N.C. State

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Temple, Cincinnati

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – High Point

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – William & Mary

Conference USA – Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Bowling Green

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, UCLA, Stanford

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Louisiana-Monroe

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

Rate this:

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – February 10th

Posted on February 10, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 021015

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2 Seeds

Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Arizona

The 3 Seeds

Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa State, Utah

The 4 Seeds

Oklahoma, Baylor, Notre Dame, Butler

The 5 Seeds

Maryland, VCU, Northern Iowa, Wichita State

The 6 Seeds

Arkansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, SMU

The 7 Seeds

Providence, Ohio State, Georgetown, Indiana

The 8 Seeds

Cincinnati, Iowa, San Diego State, Texas

The 9 Seeds

Georgia, Dayton, Xavier, Mississippi

The 10 Seeds

Colorado State, Stanford, LSU, Michigan State

The 11 Seeds

Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Illinois, Temple, Old Dominion

The 12 Seeds

Miami (FL), St. John’s, Tulsa, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wofford

The 13 Seeds

Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Murray State, Iona

The 14 Seeds

Bowling Green, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, William & Mary

The 15 Seeds

N.C. Central, Georgia Southern, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast

The 16 Seeds

North Dakota State, Albany, New Mexico State, St. Francis (N.Y.), Texas Southern, Bucknell

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Illinois, Temple, Miami (FL), St. John’s

First Four Out

George Washington, Wyoming, Purdue, Boise State

Next Four Out

Oregon, Davidson, St. Mary’s (CA), Valparaiso

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (4), Pac-12 (3), Mountain West (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami (FL)

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier, Seton Hall, St. John’s

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – High Point

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – William & Mary

Conference USA – Old Dominion

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Bowling Green

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Stanford

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, LSU, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia Southern

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

Rate this:

Discussing the University of Michigan’s NCAA Tournament outlook with Maize & Go Blue

Posted on January 22, 2015 by JLCS

This past weekend, my good friend and fellow college basketball junkie Sam Sedlecky (@SamSedlecky) from Maize & Go Blue asked me to do a Q&A about Michigan’s challenging season to date. Sam asked me some questions about the Wolverines’ skimpy resume, what it will take for John Beilein’s squad to rally for a berth in the Big Dance, and the overall state of the Big Ten. [Note: This interview was conducted before it was announced that Caris LeVert would miss the remainder of the season.]

See Sam’s questions and my answers below!

———————————————–
———————————————–

Joe, let’s start off with the basics. You don’t have the Wolverines even sniffing a Tournament berth right now (in your latest bracket, Michigan doesn’t even crack the next four out). Just how far out are they from the field of 68?

I think you captured my feelings perfectly when you said that I don’t have the Wolverines “even sniffing” a berth in the big dance right now. It’s hard to really quantify just how far out of the field the Wolverines are because of how flat and wide the topography of the tournament bubble is this year. I think the easiest way to answer this question is to say that they are one marquee win away from at least being on the radar; think home game against Wisconsin with ESPN College GameDay in town on the 24th of January.

For those of us who are hoping that your projections are way off and Michigan is much closer than that, can you give us an idea what your projection model is based off and just how your projections have stacked up to the likes of Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, and other so-called experts in the recent past – both in terms of correctly called teams and relation to actual seed line?

I’m an actuary by profession, so it’s really a part of my nature to try to find a way to numerically quantify any sort of sports analysis I perform; bracketology projections are no exception to this rule. Without revealing too much, I’ve developed a couple of minor algorithms using statistical regression that roughly project a team’s seed-line based on factors that the committee has used to seed teams in the past. In the seed projection process, I use this as a baseline measure, and adjust teams up or down based on my own personal “eye test”. As for how my projections stack up…

I’ll just say they stack up very well. You can see for yourself. The bracket matrix website aggregates the projections of all the bracketologists across the internet, and creates composite projections, while also ranking the bracketologists for accuracy. The blurb at the top of the aforementioned link explains the scoring and ranking process. Looking at the results, I have been the second most accurate bracketologist out of more than 100 over the past three years.

Obviously a lot has gone wrong with this Michigan team’s season so far, from a lack of quality to wins to some very bad losses, but if you had to pinpoint one thing holding the Wolverines’ resume back right now, what would it be?

It’s tough to really narrow it down to just one thing, but gun to my head, I would say it’s the lack of quality wins more than anything else. In general, I’ve noticed the committee is willing to overlook bad losses in the face of truly quality wins, because it demonstrates that a particular team has the potential to beat anybody. Michigan has played the likes of Villanova, Arizona, SMU, and Ohio State – four teams that are firmly in the tournament field. They’re 0-4 against these teams, with an average margin of defeat of more than 15 points per game.

What are the factors that you see contributing to these bad losses? Is there a player or two to blame? Is it bad coaching? Are injuries and/or inexperience taking a toll?

I would never say it’s bad coaching when Johnny B. is involved. In my one year as head coach of my former high school’s boys basketball junior varsity team (Yes, I played that card), I was (and still am) one of the firmest Beilein disciples you will find. I think you are on the right path in saying that injuries and inexperience are taking a toll on this team. It’s obvious to me that Walton’s toe injury is still plaguing him. His quick first step was one of his best weapons, and now that it has disappeared, he can’t generate as much space and respect from defenders as he needs to get off clean jumpers. Caris hasn’t taken on the lead “get me the ball and watch what I do with it” role quite like Nik did last season. The bigs are inexperienced and haven’t developed enough athletically to replace J-Mo and Horford.

As it stands today, what is Michigan’s best win and what is Michigan’s worst loss?

The best win has to be the early season W against the Orange, as that’s the only victory the Wolverines have over a team I currently have truly near the field. Frankly, that’s just grasping at straws, as Syracuse just lost a rather embarassing game at Clemson. I don’t think there is much of an argument from any fans of the team that the worst loss this season was the NJIT game.

Certainly the chances don’t look good for the Wolverines to storm their way into the NCAA Tournament, but is there at least a shot (outside of winning the conference tournament)? What is it going to take?

It’s going to take a miraculous finish that I currently don’t envision happening, but I think Michigan definitely still has a shot, albeit a long one, to make the tournament field. Even with the bad losses, I still think 19 wins is probably enough to allow Michigan to go dancing. That being said, I would worry if none or only one of those wins come against Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, or Michigan State. As I mentioned above, quality wins tend to be a heavily-weighed factor in the committee’s mind when it comes to making a decision on a bubble team’s fate.

Last year, we saw just half of the Big Ten (six teams) go dancing, while the year before that saw a whopping eight (75 percent of teams) make it. In your latest projection, you have six Big Ten teams in the field (Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa). How many of those teams would you consider locks right now, how many Big Ten teams would you consider to likely make it, how many will be on the bubble, and how many will certainly be left out in the cold?

You can book it now: the Badgers, the Terps, the Spartans, and the Buckeyes will be in the tournament field in March. Some might question me putting the Spartans in this category, but I’ve seen enough from them to know that they’re going to have no problem getting to 20-plus wins. In fact, I see all these teams being on the 8-seed line or better when all is said and done. In all honesty, I don’t think I can put any teams in the “likely to make it” category, because I think the gap between these four and the rest of the league is distinct.

I’m going to skip to the locks to miss the tournament (i.e. the teams Michigan must win all remaining games against to have a chance to be dancing). Those teams include Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Minnesota. That leaves the Big Ten teams that are squarely on the bubble, and it’s half of the conference! Indiana and Iowa currently sit relatively firmly in the field, but one bad loss could change that in the blink of an eye. The boys from Champaign are right in the thick of things, but if the tournament started today, I think they’d be watching from home – just barely. Then you have the other three bubble teams, who fall into the category by default only because I’m not ready to say they’re locks to be out. This is where Michigan sits, along with Purdue and Penn State.

Both you and I agree on many things, but one area of college basketball that we’d like to see altered slightly is the pace of play. I, for one, like a slower game compared to the NBA, but has college basketball gotten too slow for your tastes? How do you think the powers that be should go about changing it and do you think pace of play can predict success at all?

When I initially heard rumblings of men’s college basketball potentially moving from its current 35-second shot clock to a 30-second shot clock, similar to women’s college basketball, I was definitively opposed to the idea. However, the more editorials I read, the more statistics I analyzed, the more college basketball I watched, the more I started to believe that the 30-second shot clock is right for the game. The tempo of men’s college basketball has become sluggish, and possessions per game numbers have consistently decreased since the turn of the century.

I feel that the NCAA missed an opportunity in recent years by choosing to increase focus on guaranteeing space for the offensive player in possession, rather than focusing on speeding up the pace of play. This misguided decision has led to officials blowing the whistle more on ticky-tack fouls, and players going to the free throw line more frequently than they deserve.

——————————————————
——————————————————

Thanks so much to Sam for his time and offer to sit down for a Q&A session. Be sure to check out the blog at Maize & Go Blue and follow him on Twitter (@SamSedlecky). You can always tweet your questions to me (@JLeeC33) or leave a comment. If you enjoyed this piece, let us know!