January | 2015 | 1-3-1 Sports

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – January 26th

Posted on January 26, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 012615

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2 Seeds

Villanova, Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona

The 3 Seeds

North Carolina, Maryland, VCU, Utah

The 4 Seeds

Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa State, Louisville

The 5 Seeds

West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Baylor, Georgetown

The 6 Seeds

Arkansas, Providence, Texas, Butler

The 7 Seeds

Ohio State, SMU, Colorado State, Dayton

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, San Diego State, Stanford, Indiana

The 9 Seeds

Cincinnati, Georgia, Miami (FL), LSU

The 10 Seeds

Michigan State, Iowa, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State

The 11 Seeds

George Washington, Wyoming, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Tulsa

The 12 Seeds

Washington, Davidson, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wofford, Western Kentucky

The 13 Seeds

Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington, Kent State

The 14 Seeds

Iona, Northeastern, Yale, N.C. Central

The 15 Seeds

UC Davis, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, South Dakota State

The 16 Seeds

Albany, North Florida, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Texas Southern, St. Francis (N.Y.)

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BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

St. John’s, Texas A&M, Washington, Davidson

First Four Out

Xavier, N.C. State, Old Dominion, Syracuse

Next Four Out

St. Mary’s (CA), Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi

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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big 12 (7), Big East (6), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami (FL)

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, George Washington, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East – Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Western Kentucky

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Kent State

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Stanford, Washington

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia Southern

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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Discussing the University of Michigan’s NCAA Tournament outlook with Maize & Go Blue

Posted on January 22, 2015 by JLCS

This past weekend, my good friend and fellow college basketball junkie Sam Sedlecky (@SamSedlecky) from Maize & Go Blue asked me to do a Q&A about Michigan’s challenging season to date. Sam asked me some questions about the Wolverines’ skimpy resume, what it will take for John Beilein’s squad to rally for a berth in the Big Dance, and the overall state of the Big Ten. [Note: This interview was conducted before it was announced that Caris LeVert would miss the remainder of the season.]

See Sam’s questions and my answers below!

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Joe, let’s start off with the basics. You don’t have the Wolverines even sniffing a Tournament berth right now (in your latest bracket, Michigan doesn’t even crack the next four out). Just how far out are they from the field of 68?

I think you captured my feelings perfectly when you said that I don’t have the Wolverines “even sniffing” a berth in the big dance right now. It’s hard to really quantify just how far out of the field the Wolverines are because of how flat and wide the topography of the tournament bubble is this year. I think the easiest way to answer this question is to say that they are one marquee win away from at least being on the radar; think home game against Wisconsin with ESPN College GameDay in town on the 24th of January.

For those of us who are hoping that your projections are way off and Michigan is much closer than that, can you give us an idea what your projection model is based off and just how your projections have stacked up to the likes of Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, and other so-called experts in the recent past – both in terms of correctly called teams and relation to actual seed line?

I’m an actuary by profession, so it’s really a part of my nature to try to find a way to numerically quantify any sort of sports analysis I perform; bracketology projections are no exception to this rule. Without revealing too much, I’ve developed a couple of minor algorithms using statistical regression that roughly project a team’s seed-line based on factors that the committee has used to seed teams in the past. In the seed projection process, I use this as a baseline measure, and adjust teams up or down based on my own personal “eye test”. As for how my projections stack up…

I’ll just say they stack up very well. You can see for yourself. The bracket matrix website aggregates the projections of all the bracketologists across the internet, and creates composite projections, while also ranking the bracketologists for accuracy. The blurb at the top of the aforementioned link explains the scoring and ranking process. Looking at the results, I have been the second most accurate bracketologist out of more than 100 over the past three years.

Obviously a lot has gone wrong with this Michigan team’s season so far, from a lack of quality to wins to some very bad losses, but if you had to pinpoint one thing holding the Wolverines’ resume back right now, what would it be?

It’s tough to really narrow it down to just one thing, but gun to my head, I would say it’s the lack of quality wins more than anything else. In general, I’ve noticed the committee is willing to overlook bad losses in the face of truly quality wins, because it demonstrates that a particular team has the potential to beat anybody. Michigan has played the likes of Villanova, Arizona, SMU, and Ohio State – four teams that are firmly in the tournament field. They’re 0-4 against these teams, with an average margin of defeat of more than 15 points per game.

What are the factors that you see contributing to these bad losses? Is there a player or two to blame? Is it bad coaching? Are injuries and/or inexperience taking a toll?

I would never say it’s bad coaching when Johnny B. is involved. In my one year as head coach of my former high school’s boys basketball junior varsity team (Yes, I played that card), I was (and still am) one of the firmest Beilein disciples you will find. I think you are on the right path in saying that injuries and inexperience are taking a toll on this team. It’s obvious to me that Walton’s toe injury is still plaguing him. His quick first step was one of his best weapons, and now that it has disappeared, he can’t generate as much space and respect from defenders as he needs to get off clean jumpers. Caris hasn’t taken on the lead “get me the ball and watch what I do with it” role quite like Nik did last season. The bigs are inexperienced and haven’t developed enough athletically to replace J-Mo and Horford.

As it stands today, what is Michigan’s best win and what is Michigan’s worst loss?

The best win has to be the early season W against the Orange, as that’s the only victory the Wolverines have over a team I currently have truly near the field. Frankly, that’s just grasping at straws, as Syracuse just lost a rather embarassing game at Clemson. I don’t think there is much of an argument from any fans of the team that the worst loss this season was the NJIT game.

Certainly the chances don’t look good for the Wolverines to storm their way into the NCAA Tournament, but is there at least a shot (outside of winning the conference tournament)? What is it going to take?

It’s going to take a miraculous finish that I currently don’t envision happening, but I think Michigan definitely still has a shot, albeit a long one, to make the tournament field. Even with the bad losses, I still think 19 wins is probably enough to allow Michigan to go dancing. That being said, I would worry if none or only one of those wins come against Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, or Michigan State. As I mentioned above, quality wins tend to be a heavily-weighed factor in the committee’s mind when it comes to making a decision on a bubble team’s fate.

Last year, we saw just half of the Big Ten (six teams) go dancing, while the year before that saw a whopping eight (75 percent of teams) make it. In your latest projection, you have six Big Ten teams in the field (Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa). How many of those teams would you consider locks right now, how many Big Ten teams would you consider to likely make it, how many will be on the bubble, and how many will certainly be left out in the cold?

You can book it now: the Badgers, the Terps, the Spartans, and the Buckeyes will be in the tournament field in March. Some might question me putting the Spartans in this category, but I’ve seen enough from them to know that they’re going to have no problem getting to 20-plus wins. In fact, I see all these teams being on the 8-seed line or better when all is said and done. In all honesty, I don’t think I can put any teams in the “likely to make it” category, because I think the gap between these four and the rest of the league is distinct.

I’m going to skip to the locks to miss the tournament (i.e. the teams Michigan must win all remaining games against to have a chance to be dancing). Those teams include Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Minnesota. That leaves the Big Ten teams that are squarely on the bubble, and it’s half of the conference! Indiana and Iowa currently sit relatively firmly in the field, but one bad loss could change that in the blink of an eye. The boys from Champaign are right in the thick of things, but if the tournament started today, I think they’d be watching from home – just barely. Then you have the other three bubble teams, who fall into the category by default only because I’m not ready to say they’re locks to be out. This is where Michigan sits, along with Purdue and Penn State.

Both you and I agree on many things, but one area of college basketball that we’d like to see altered slightly is the pace of play. I, for one, like a slower game compared to the NBA, but has college basketball gotten too slow for your tastes? How do you think the powers that be should go about changing it and do you think pace of play can predict success at all?

When I initially heard rumblings of men’s college basketball potentially moving from its current 35-second shot clock to a 30-second shot clock, similar to women’s college basketball, I was definitively opposed to the idea. However, the more editorials I read, the more statistics I analyzed, the more college basketball I watched, the more I started to believe that the 30-second shot clock is right for the game. The tempo of men’s college basketball has become sluggish, and possessions per game numbers have consistently decreased since the turn of the century.

I feel that the NCAA missed an opportunity in recent years by choosing to increase focus on guaranteeing space for the offensive player in possession, rather than focusing on speeding up the pace of play. This misguided decision has led to officials blowing the whistle more on ticky-tack fouls, and players going to the free throw line more frequently than they deserve.

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Thanks so much to Sam for his time and offer to sit down for a Q&A session. Be sure to check out the blog at Maize & Go Blue and follow him on Twitter (@SamSedlecky). You can always tweet your questions to me (@JLeeC33) or leave a comment. If you enjoyed this piece, let us know!

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – January 19th

Posted on January 19, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 011915

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Gonzaga

The 2 Seeds

Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona

The 3 Seeds

North Carolina, VCU, Maryland, Iowa State

The 4 Seeds

Utah, Wichita State, Louisville, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas, Northern Iowa

The 6 Seeds

Seton Hall, Arkansas, Baylor, Dayton

The 7 Seeds

Providence, Old Dominion, San Diego State, Stanford

The 8 Seeds

Colorado State, Butler, Michigan State, Ohio State

The 9 Seeds

SMU, Georgetown, Indiana, Iowa

The 10 Seeds

St. John’s, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Georgia

The 11 Seeds

George Washington, Xavier, LSU, N.C. State, Miami (FL), Wyoming

The 12 Seeds

Tulsa, Buffalo, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Harvard

The 13 Seeds

Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Northeastern

The 14 Seeds

Murray State, Iona, Eastern Washington, N.C. Central

The 15 Seeds

UC Davis, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, North Dakota State

The 16 Seeds

Albany, North Florida, New Mexico State, St. Francis (N.Y.), Texas Southern, Colgate

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BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

LSU, N.C. State, Miami (FL), Wyoming

First Four Out

St. Mary’s (CA), Syracuse, Tennessee, Washington

Next Four Out

Alabama, BYU, Kansas State, Pittsburgh

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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big 12 (7), Big East (7), ACC (7), Big Ten (6), SEC (4), Pac-12 (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Missouri Valley (2), Conference USA (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame, N.C. State, Miami (FL)

America East – Albany

American – SMU, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, George Washington

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big 12 – Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Big East – Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler, Georgetown, St. John’s, Xavier

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming

Northeast – St. Francis (N.Y.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Stanford

Patriot – Colgate

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Louisiana-Monroe

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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Teams Trending

Posted on January 16, 2015 by JLCS

Trending Up

– Butler: A strong overtime victory on the road against the ranked Pirates bodes well for everyone’s favorite former Cinderella.

– Indiana: After a demoralizing road loss in East Lansing, the Hoosiers have bounced back to hold home court and take down both Penn State and Ohio State in the past week at Assembly Hall.

– Dayton: Seriously – how are the Flyers NOT ranked? A 14-2 record and they’re sitting on top of the better-than-you-think Atlantic-10. Okay, so maybe the SOS doesn’t blow you away, but Jordan Sibert can lead this team and BALL when he’s on his game.

– VCU: They continue to win all the games they should. What teams have they lost to, you ask? Virginia, Villanova, and Old Dominion; combined record of those teams: 46-3.

– Kansas: This team is light years ahead of where they were during that debacle against Kentucky early in the season.

– Colorado State: I thought the Rams were a fluke as one of the last remaining unbeatens. Back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Wyoming early in January did nothing to alter my belief, but they’ve recovered to win back-to-back conference games this past week.

– Miami (FL): They won at Cameron Indoor earlier this week, and by a wide margin. It’s wins like this that catapult a team from First Four Out to firmly in the field as a 10-seed.

– Tulsa: Wins at Temple and against Connecticut have propelled the Golden Hurricanes into an unlikely position as the sole leader of the AAC.

Trending Down

– Oklahoma: In a game I was really looking forward to, Huggy Bear’s Mountaineers really laid a beat-down on the boys from Norman. The Sooners looked lost on the court, getting killed on the offensive glass and in the turnover department.

– Duke: The Blue Devils have lost back-to-back games to conference foes that were squarely on the bubble. Despite the fantastically promising start, these two losses have more than likely pushed Krzyzewski’s squad off the one-seed line for the time being.

– Texas: The Longhorns are 2-3 in their last five games and I’ve not seen anything from any of Rick Barnes’ past squads to lead me to believe they will get significantly better as the season progresses.

– Xavier: It’s hard to really get on a team for two road losses to teams that are sure to be in the tournament come March, but the Musketeers loss both games by double digits.

– Washington: Despite winning last night against Oregon State, the Huskies are at 1-3 in conference, after a very promising 11-1 start to the season. Even so, Nigel Williams-Goss might be one of the best all-around players in the country that nobody on the East Coast knows about.

– Illinois: The Illini might be the Big Ten’s only best bet to get a seventh team into the field from the conference. They just need to gain their footing and stop playing so inconsistently if they want that to come to fruition.

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – January 11th

Posted on January 11, 2015 by JLCS

THE BRACKET:

Bracket 011115

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin

The 2 Seeds

Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas

The 3 Seeds

Utah, Maryland, Louisville, West Virginia

The 4 Seeds

VCU, Wichita State, North Carolina, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

Iowa State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Texas

The 6 Seeds

Arkansas, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Dayton

The 7 Seeds

Michigan State, Ohio State, Butler, Providence

The 8 Seeds

Old Dominion, Cincinnati, St. John’s, San Diego State

The 9 Seeds

Colorado State, Stanford, Xavier, George Washington

The 10 Seeds

Temple, Washington, SMU, LSU

The 11 Seeds

Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Indiana, Iowa, BYU

The 12 Seeds

Syracuse, Wyoming, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Harvard, Wofford

The 13 Seeds

Western Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Bowling Green

The 14 Seeds

Eastern Washington, Murray State, Hofstra, Coastal Carolina

The 15 Seeds

Louisiana-Lafayette, N.C. Central, USC Upstate, UC Davis

The 16 Seeds

North Dakota State, Albany, New Mexico State, Boston University, St. Francis (PA.), Texas Southern

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BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Iowa, BYU, Syracuse, Wyoming

First Four Out

Alabama, Connecticut, Davidson, Miami (FL)

Next Four Out

Georgia, N.C. State, Illinois, TCU

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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big 12 (7), Big East (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (4), SEC (3), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Missouri Valley (2), Conference USA (2)

ACC – Virginia, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse

America East – Albany

American – Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Dayton, George Washington

Atlantic Sun – USC Upstate

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Big East – Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier, Georgetown

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – Coastal Carolina

Big Ten – Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – Hofstra

Conference USA – Old Dominion, Western Kentucky

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Harvard

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Bowling Green

MEAC – N.C. Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming

Northeast – St. Francis (PA.)

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Utah, Stanford, Washington

Patriot – Boston University

SEC – Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Louisiana-Lafayette

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, BYU