Mid-August 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings (PPR)

1-3-1 Sports PPR Overall Rankings

1-3-1 Sports QB Rankings

1-3-1 Sports PPR RB Rankings

1-3-1 Sports PPR WR Rankings

1-3-1 Sports PPR TE Rankings

1-3-1 Sports DST Rankings

View more fantasy football rankings at FantasyPros!

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The Five Don’ts (and Do’s) of General Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

1. Don’t go in with a set plan regarding when to draft certain positions.

I’ve seen it one too many times: “I’m going RB-RB in the first two rounds” or “I’m holding off on drafting a TE until at least the seventh round!” Falling victim to such a rigid draft strategy will prevent you from optimizing your team’s full point-scoring potential. If you’re in a draft and Gronk, Kelce, or Ertz have fallen way past their ADP, pull the trigger.

2. Do draft the best available player, subject to positional needs of your team AND other teams.

Go into your draft with an open mind and take the player at your draft position that you believe will help your team score the most points from week to week. Later in the draft, drafting a player to fill out your starting lineup might make some sense. However, early on, don’t be afraid to nab your third RB or fourth WR before you draft a QB, TE, or defense. Also, be aware of the positional needs of owners around you. If you’re in the 8th spot in a 10-team league, and both owners in the 9th and 10th spot have already heavily invested in one position, odds are in your favor that you can hold off on drafting that position if the snake draft is going in that direction; wait for it to come back the other way.

3. Don’t go in with players you must absolutely have at all costs.

This is not to say that you should not have specific players that you are targeting that you like more than other owners in your league. However, if you go into your draft with must-have players, you’ll inevitably end up reaching a round or two early (or over-bidding, in the case of an auction) just to secure your guy.

4. Do go in with players you must absolutely avoid at all costs.

This is the year that _________ stays healthy and finally reaches his full potential! Sure it is. ________ is on a new team and has a new lease on his playing career, so he’s due for a bounce-back! Awesome – I’ll let you gamble on that bounce-back. Do your best to cut through the names and the hype and look at what players have done and what they’re expected to do from a strictly statistical standpoint. Don’t become overly enamored with physical measurables and potential. Compare expected volume and production to their ADP, and if their ADP is much higher than merited, simply avoid overpaying.

5. Don’t use late round picks on mediocre veterans.

They’ve been in the league for years – you know what they’re going to give you, and you know their ceiling and floor. In all likelihood, they’ll end up as nothing more than a serviceable bye week fill-in on your roster.

6. Do use late round picks on high risk, high upside players.

Unlike the abovementioned mediocre veterans, there will inevitably be some younger players available later in the draft that are greater unknowns. They certainly have a lower floor, but they also have a higher ceiling. You may drop your 11th and 13th round pick after three or four weeks, but your 12th round pick ends up as one of your top four players. Risk aversion is not something you should engage in late in the draft; be bold.

7. Don’t go into your draft without adequate preparation.

Know your league settings from top to bottom. Put in the time and due diligence to rank players and have a general draft strategy that lines up with those league settings. You don’t want to be the person who prepped for weeks for a standard draft, only to have draft day roll around and find out that you’re drafting in a 2-QB, PPR league. The savvy owners in the league will recognize it, and rib you mercilessly for it.

8. Do a mock draft or three. Get a general feel for when players are being drafted and practice adapting on the fly to unexpected events.

Try to do as many mock drafts as your free time allows that emulate your league settings as close as possible. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com is a great place to start. Your actual league draft will inevitably unfold differently from any of the mock drafts you do beforehand. However, the goal of mock drafts isn’t to anticipate what your actual roster will look like when the real draft is over. Rather, it is to see who is going in what round (or for what amount in the case of an auction) and to practice adapting on the fly. Doing this will allow you to be prepared and ready to make timely decisions on draft day.

9. Don’t use generic rankings from some outdated magazine or website.

I love it when other owners walk into the draft room with some “foolproof” fantasy football magazine or printed sheets of paper with generic rankings from a high-traffic sports website. I love it because I know I will out-draft them. The rankings contained within these platforms do not have the most up-to-date information available, and put you at a distinct disadvantage on draft day.

10. Do use rankings developed with your league-specific settings in mind.

At this point, I’m beating a dead horse, but I really don’t care: use your league settings to your advantage. If you can use rankings based on statistical projections specific to your league settings, you’ll have a big leg up on your competition. Lucky for you, I have created a model in Microsoft Excel that allows you to do just this. It takes into account league-specific settings, player projections, and player ADPs to optimize your draft selections in each round. If you are interested in using it (free of charge), simply email me at jleecook@umich.edu.

 

Good luck, and happy drafting!

How to Win Your Bracket Pool (2018 Edition)

Before you begin reading this article, I want to make one thing abundantly clear: I’m not telling you how to fill out the perfect bracket; that’s impossible (insert cliche about the astronomically small odds of this ever happening). Rather, I’m giving you statistically sound, pragmatic advice on how to win your bracket pool between you and your friends (and the spoils that come along with it). If you follow these foolproof steps, you should finish at (or at the very least near) the top:

Step 1: Advance all 1 and 2 seeds to the Sweet 16.

Okay, I know, this is super chalky and people may rag on you for making this move. Furthermore, the odds are heavily against all eight 1 and 2 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. However, picking which 1 or 2 seed is going to get upset is a fool’s gambit. You put yourself at risk of losing easy points that your opponents will gain. You’re better off taking a couple gambles in other early round games, and just playing it close to the vest here.

To further drive home my point, consider this – in the last nine tournaments, 53 of the 72 teams (74%) on the 1 and 2 seed line advanced to the Sweet 16. If you can essentially lock in 6 correct teams in your predicted Sweet 16, you should do it.

Step 2: Advance all 3 and 4 seeds to the second round.

The same chalkiness mentioned in step 1 definitely applies here as well, but the same logic applies as well. The difference here is that a lower seed upset over a 3 or 4 in the second round is much more likely  in comparison to a similar 1 or 2 upset. Thus, auto-advancing the 3 and 4 seeds should only apply to the first round. It’s fun bragging about being the one person who accurately picked the crazy 14 over 3 upset, but you know what’s more fun? Bragging about winning your bracket pool.

In a similar fashion to step 1, I really want to drive home this point as well. In the last nine tournaments, 60 of the 72 teams (83%) on the 3 and 4 seed line advanced to the second round.

Step 3: Use the following statistical data to fill out the rest of your bracket.
(*Note*: The 0% values listed do not imply that the result cannot happen. Rather, the result is extremely unlikely [less than 0.5% likelihood])

I developed a predictive model to attempt to project who has the best chance of advancing far into the tournament. I refined the  model to further optimize the predictive results, then normalized the projections for each region to create a probability of advancing in any given round for every team in the tournament. I used historic tournament results from games that took place between 2010 to 2017. The analysis of factors that are most predictive in projecting a national champion is the area where I have committed the most time and performed the most research. This is not coincidence, as this is the most valuable prediction when it comes to winning your bracket pool.

2018SouthRegion

South Region

2018EastRegion

East Region

2018MidwestRegion

Midwest Region

2018WestRegion

West Region

 

Bonus: Synthesizing the above charts for people who don’t like numbers.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

  • (12) New Mexico State over (5) Clemson: 58%
  • (11) Arizona State/Syracuse over (6) TCU: 51%
  • (11) San Diego State over (6) Houston: 41%
  • (12) South Dakota State over (5) Ohio State: 41%

Toss-Up Games

  • (8) Creighton over (9) Kansas State: 53%
  • (7) Nevada TOSS UP (10) Texas: 50%
  • (9) Alabama over (8) Virginia Tech: 55%
  • (10) Butler over (7) Arkansas: 52%
  • (8) Seton Hall over (9) NC State: 58%
  • (7) Rhode Island over (10) Oklahoma: 65%
  • (8) Missouri over (9) Florida State: 51%
  • (7) Texas A&M over (10) Providence: 55%

Best Final Four Picks by Region

  • South: (2) Cincinnati, (4) Arizona, (5) Kentucky, (1) Virginia
  • East: (1) Villanova, (4) Wichita State, (6) Florida, (2) Purdue
  • Midwest: (1) Kansas, (2) Duke, (3) Michigan State
  • West: (2) North Carolina, (1) Xavier, (4) Gonzaga

Best Champion Picks

  • (2) North Carolina
  • (1) Villanova
  • (2) Duke
  • (1) Kansas
  • (2) Cincinnati
  • (3) Michigan State

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 11th (Final)

Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031118 (Final)
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue

The 3 Seeds

Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia

The 4 Seeds

Auburn, Arizona, Texas Tech, Wichita State

The 5 Seeds

Kentucky, Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State

The 6 Seeds

Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami (FL)

The 7 Seeds

Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall, Rhode Island

The 8 Seeds

Nevada, Virginia Tech, Providence, Missouri

The 9 Seeds

Butler, Alabama, Kansas State, NC State

The 10 Seeds

Creighton, Florida State, St. Bonaventure, UCLA

The 11 Seeds

Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago, Davidson

The 12 Seeds

New Mexico State, San Diego State, South Dakota State, Murray State

The 13 Seeds

Buffalo, UNC-Greensboro, Marshall, College of Charleston

The 14 Seeds

Bucknell, Montana, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin

The 15 Seeds

Georgia State, Lipscomb, Iona, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

Maryland-Baltimore County, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, North Carolina Central 

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Arizona State

First Four Out

St. Mary’s (CA), Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Next Four Out

Marquette, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State

America East – Maryland-Baltimore County

American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Davidson

Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence

Big Sky – Montana

Big South – Radford

Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West – Cal State Fullerton

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Marshall

Horizon – Wright State

Ivy – Pennsylvania

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State

Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arizona State

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama

Southern – UNC-Greensboro

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 11th (AM)

Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031118 (AM)
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue

The 3 Seeds

Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia

The 4 Seeds

Auburn, Texas Tech, Arizona, Wichita State

The 5 Seeds

Gonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Florida

The 6 Seeds

Ohio State, Houston, Arkansas, Miami (FL)

The 7 Seeds

Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall, Rhode Island

The 8 Seeds

Nevada, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Providence

The 9 Seeds

Alabama, Kansas State, Butler, NC State

The 10 Seeds

Florida State, Creighton, St. Bonaventure, UCLA

The 11 Seeds

Oklahoma, Texas, USC, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago

The 12 Seeds

San Diego State, New Mexico State, Buffalo, South Dakota State

The 13 Seeds

Murray State, Marshall, UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston

The 14 Seeds

Bucknell, Montana, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin

The 15 Seeds

Georgia State, Iona, Lipscomb, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

Maryland-Baltimore County, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, North Carolina Central 

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Texas, USC, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State

First Four Out

Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Marquette

Next Four Out

Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Nebraska

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State

America East – Maryland-Baltimore County

American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure

Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence

Big Sky – Montana

Big South – Radford

Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West – Cal State Fullerton

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Marshall

Horizon – Wright State

Ivy – Pennsylvania

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State

Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arizona State

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama

Southern – UNC-Greensboro

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 10th

Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031018
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati

The 3 Seeds

Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia

The 4 Seeds

Wichita State, Arizona, Auburn, Texas Tech

The 5 Seeds

Gonzaga, Clemson, Florida, Kentucky

The 6 Seeds

Ohio State, Houston, Miami (FL), Arkansas

The 7 Seeds

TCU, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Rhode Island

The 8 Seeds

Nevada, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Butler

The 9 Seeds

Creighton, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, NC State

The 10 Seeds

Providence, Florida State, USC, Oklahoma

The 11 Seeds

Texas, UCLA, Alabama, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago

The 12 Seeds

Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, San Diego State, Buffalo

The 13 Seeds

Murray State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Louisiana-Lafayette

The 14 Seeds

UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Bucknell, Montana

The 15 Seeds

Wright State, Pennsylvania, Stephen F. Austin, Iona

The 16 Seeds

Lipscomb, Radford, UC Irvine, Hampton, LIU-Brooklyn, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

UCLA, Alabama, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State

First Four Out

Louisville, Baylor, Marquette, Oklahoma State

Next Four Out

Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Mississippi State

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State

America East – Vermont

American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure

Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence

Big Sky – Montana

Big South – Radford

Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Western Kentucky

Horizon – Wright State

Ivy – Pennsylvania

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State

Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Arizona, USC, UCLA, Arizona State

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama

Southern – UNC-Greensboro

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Louisiana-Lafayette

SWAC – Arkansas-Pine Bluff

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)