After a great deal of hours put into data compilation, statistical analysis, and number crunching, I have finished my model. My goal was to be able to compile a formula that projects the likelihood that any one of the given teams in the field of 68 wins the NCAA Tournament. There are a good amount of extra variables, such as distance traveled and overall team tournament experience, that I wished to include. However, I was not able to compile some of these due to time constraints and my bracketology work.

In the end, the final version of the model includes a whopping 29 variables. The data collected and analyzed featured statistics and results from the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments ranging from 2010 to 2015. Based on previous years, it appears that the most important variables in determining a team’s likelihood of making the final four include: strength of schedule, preseason AP poll points, offensive and defensive efficiency, and offensive rebound percentage. Once a team makes the final four, the amount of tournament wins and the tournament winning percentage of the coach of each team becomes more relevant.

Tournament Projections

Do with the information and projections above what you will, and good luck to anyone filling out  a bracket – March is the best time of the year!

 

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031316
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oregon

The 2 Seeds

Virginia, Villanova, Oklahoma, West Virginia

The 3 Seeds

Xavier, Miami (FL), Utah, Kentucky

The 4 Seeds

Indiana, Texas A&M, Purdue, Maryland

The 5 Seeds

Duke, California, Seton Hall, Iowa State

The 6 Seeds

Arizona, Baylor, Texas, Notre Dame

The 7 Seeds

Iowa, St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Wisconsin

The 8 Seeds

Providence, Colorado, Connecticut, Texas Tech

The 9 Seeds

USC, Oregon State, Butler, Cincinnati

The 10 Seeds

VCU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Wichita State

The 11 Seeds

St. Bonaventure, St. Mary’s, Michigan, San Diego State, Temple, Arkansas-Little Rock

The 12 Seeds

Yale, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Chattanooga

The 13 Seeds

NC-Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook, Fresno State

The 14 Seeds

Hawaii, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo

The 15 Seeds

Wisconsin-Green Bay, CSU Bakersfield, Weber State, NC-Asheville

The 16 Seeds

Hampton, Florida Gulf Coast, Southern, Austin Peay, Fairleigh Dickinson, Holy Cross

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

St. Mary’s, Michigan, San Diego State, Temple

First Four Out

South Carolina, Monmouth, Vanderbilt, Syracuse

Next Four Out

Valparaiso, Florida, Tulsa, Florida State

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Pac-12 (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (5), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3), SEC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2)

ACC – North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

America East – Stony Brook

American – Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple

Atlantic 10 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, VCU, St. Bonaventure

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – Fresno State, San Diego State

Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley – Austin Peay

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, California, Arizona, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Holy Cross

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Southern

WAC – CSU Bakersfield

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031216
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia

The 3 Seeds

Xavier, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky

The 4 Seeds

Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Texas A&M

The 5 Seeds

Duke, Arizona, California, Iowa State

The 6 Seeds

Baylor, Dayton, Seton Hall, Texas

The 7 Seeds

Notre Dame, Iowa, Providence, Wisconsin

The 8 Seeds

Colorado, St. Joseph’s, Texas Tech, USC

The 9 Seeds

Oregon State, Butler, Cincinnati, Wichita State

The 10 Seeds

Pittsburgh, Connecticut, South Carolina, Gonzaga

The 11 Seeds

VCU, St. Bonaventure, St. Mary’s, Michigan, Temple, San Diego State

The 12 Seeds

Arkansas-Little Rock, Yale, Akron, South Dakota State

The 13 Seeds

Northern Iowa, Chattanooga, NC-Wilmington, Hawaii

The 14 Seeds

Stony Brook, Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Middle Tennessee

The 15 Seeds

Wisconsin-Green Bay, New Mexico State, Weber State, NC-Asheville

The 16 Seeds

Florida Gulf Coast, Hampton, Austin Peay, Jackson State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Holy Cross

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

St. Bonaventure, St. Mary’s, Michigan, Temple

First Four Out

Monmouth, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Tulsa

Next Four Out

Valparaiso, Florida, Florida State, Houston

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Pac-12 (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (5), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3), SEC (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

America East – Stony Brook

American – Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple

Atlantic 10 – Dayton, St. Joseph’s, VCU, St. Bonaventure

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Akron

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State

Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley – Austin Peay

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Holy Cross

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Jackson State

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

THE BRACKET
Bracket 031116
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State

The 2 Seeds

Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon

The 3 Seeds

Miami (FL), Utah, West Virginia, Indiana

The 4 Seeds

Kentucky, Maryland, Purdue, Duke

The 5 Seeds

Texas A&M, Arizona, California, Iowa State

The 6 Seeds

Baylor, Dayton, Notre Dame, Texas

The 7 Seeds

Iowa, Seton Hall, Providence, Wisconsin

The 8 Seeds

USC, Colorado, Texas Tech, St. Joseph’s

The 9 Seeds

South Carolina, Oregon State, Butler, Wichita State

The 10 Seeds

Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Gonzaga

The 11 Seeds

Connecticut, Vanderbilt, VCU, Temple, Tulsa, San Diego State

The 12 Seeds

Arkansas-Little Rock, Yale, Akron, South Dakota State

The 13 Seeds

Chattanooga, Northern Iowa, NC-Wilmington, Hawaii

The 14 Seeds

Iona, Stony Brook, Stephen F. Austin, Middle Tennessee

The 15 Seeds

Wisconsin-Green Bay, New Mexico State, Weber State, NC-Asheville

The 16 Seeds

Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Hampton, Austin Peay, Fairleigh Dickinson, Holy Cross

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Vanderbilt, VCU, Temple, Tulsa

First Four Out

St. Mary’s, Michigan, Monmouth, Syracuse

Next Four Out

Florida, Valparaiso, Florida State, Houston

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Pac-12 (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), American (4), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

America East – Stony Brook

American – Connecticut, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, VCU

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Akron

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State

Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley – Austin Peay

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Holy Cross

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

THE BRACKET
Bracket 030916
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State

The 2 Seeds

Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon

The 3 Seeds

Miami (FL), Utah, West Virginia, Indiana

The 4 Seeds

Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, Purdue

The 5 Seeds

Texas A&M, Arizona, Iowa State, Iowa

The 6 Seeds

California, Texas, Baylor, Dayton

The 7 Seeds

Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Seton Hall

The 8 Seeds

Colorado, USC, Providence, St. Joseph’s

The 9 Seeds

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Butler

The 10 Seeds

Wichita State, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Gonzaga

The 11 Seeds

Connecticut, Cincinnati, Syracuse, VCU, Tulsa, San Diego State

The 12 Seeds

Arkansas-Little Rock, Yale, Akron, South Dakota State

The 13 Seeds

Chattanooga, Northern Iowa, NC-Wilmington, Hawaii

The 14 Seeds

Iona, Stony Brook, UAB, Stephen F. Austin

The 15 Seeds

Wisconsin-Green Bay, New Mexico State, Weber State, NC-Asheville

The 16 Seeds

Lehigh, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Hampton, Austin Peay, Fairleigh Dickinson

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Cincinnati, Syracuse, VCU, Tulsa

First Four Out

St. Mary’s, Valparaiso, Michigan, Temple

Next Four Out

Monmouth, Florida, Florida State, Houston

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (7), Pac-12 (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

America East – Stony Brook

American – Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, VCU

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – UAB

Horizon – Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Akron

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State

Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley – Austin Peay

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Lehigh

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

THE BRACKET
Bracket 030716
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State

The 2 Seeds

Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon

The 3 Seeds

Miami (FL), Utah, West Virginia, Indiana

The 4 Seeds

Kentucky, Maryland, Duke, Purdue

The 5 Seeds

Texas A&M, Arizona, Iowa State, Iowa

The 6 Seeds

California, Texas, Baylor, Dayton

The 7 Seeds

Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Seton Hall

The 8 Seeds

Colorado, USC, Providence, St. Joseph’s

The 9 Seeds

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Butler

The 10 Seeds

Wichita State, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, St. Mary’s

The 11 Seeds

Connecticut, Cincinnati, Syracuse, VCU, Tulsa, Valparaiso

The 12 Seeds

San Diego State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Monmouth, Yale

The 13 Seeds

South Dakota State, Akron, Chattanooga, Northern Iowa

The 14 Seeds

Hawaii, Hofstra, Stony Brook, UAB

The 15 Seeds

Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Weber State, NC-Asheville

The 16 Seeds

Wagner, Lehigh, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Hampton, Austin Peay

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Cincinnati, Syracuse, VCU, Tulsa

First Four Out

Temple, Gonzaga, Michigan, Florida

Next Four Out

Florida State, Houston, George Washington, Alabama

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (7), Pac-12 (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (2)

ACC – Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

America East – Stony Brook

American – Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, VCU

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – Hofstra

Conference USA – UAB

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Akron

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Mountain West – San Diego State

Northeast – Wagner

Ohio Valley – Austin Peay

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Lehigh

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – St. Mary’s

THE BRACKET
Bracket 030416
PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State

The 2 Seeds

Oklahoma, Xavier, Miami (FL), North Carolina

The 3 Seeds

Oregon, Utah, West Virginia, Maryland

The 4 Seeds

Duke, Iowa State, Kentucky, Indiana

The 5 Seeds

Purdue, Texas A&M, Arizona, Baylor

The 6 Seeds

Iowa, Texas, California, Wisconsin

The 7 Seeds

St. Joseph’s, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Dayton

The 8 Seeds

Colorado, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Wichita State

The 9 Seeds

USC, Providence, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

The 10 Seeds

Oregon State, Connecticut, Syracuse, St. Bonaventure

The 11 Seeds

Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Michigan, Tulsa, St. Mary’s

The 12 Seeds

Valparaiso, San Diego State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Monmouth

The 13 Seeds

South Dakota State, Akron, Yale, Chattanooga

The 14 Seeds

Hawaii, Hofstra, Stony Brook, UAB

The 15 Seeds

Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Weber State

The 16 Seeds

Winthrop, Lehigh, Hampton, Wagner, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast

—————————————————————-

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Cincinnati, VCU, Michigan, Tulsa

First Four Out

Temple, Gonzaga, Florida, George Washington

Next Four Out

Alabama, Ohio State, Washington, Florida State

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3)

ACC – Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

America East – Stony Brook

American – Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, VCU

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – Winthrop

Big Ten – Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Big West – Hawaii

Colonial – Hofstra

Conference USA – UAB

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Akron

MEAC – Hampton

Missouri Valley – Wichita State

Mountain West – San Diego State

Northeast – Wagner

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Patriot – Lehigh

SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – Chattanooga

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – St. Mary’s