Tournament Game Projections (3/24/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

2019 O/U Pick Record: 19-17-4
2019 Spread Pick Record:
18-19-3

TODAY’S GAMES

(10) Iowa vs. (2) Tennessee

Tip Time: 12:10 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Tennessee – 82, Iowa – 73
O/U Pick: Under (156.5)
Spread Pick: Tennessee (-7.5)

(9) Washington vs. (1) North Carolina

Tip Time: 2:40 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: North Carolina – 79, Washington – 69
O/U Pick: Under (150.5)
Spread Pick: Washington (+12.5)

(9) UCF vs. (1) Duke

Tip Time: 5:15 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Duke – 73, UCF – 60
O/U Pick: Under (145)
Spread Pick: Push (Duke -13)

(6) Buffalo vs. (3) Texas Tech

Tip Time: 6:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Texas Tech – 74, Buffalo – 71
O/U Pick: Under (147)
Spread Pick: Buffalo (+4)

(12) Liberty vs. (4) Virginia Tech

Tip Time: 7:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Virginia Tech – 68, Liberty – 59
O/U Pick: Over (126)
Spread Pick: Virginia Tech (-8)

(9) Oklahoma vs. (1) Virginia

Tip Time: 7:45 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Virginia – 70, Oklahoma – 58
O/U Pick: Over (126)
Spread Pick: Virginia (-10)

(11) Ohio State vs. (3) Houston

Tip Time: 8:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Houston – 69, Ohio State – 62
O/U Pick: Under (132.5)
Spread Pick: Houston (-5.5)

(13) UC Irvine vs. (12) Oregon

Tip Time: 9:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Oregon – 66, UC Irvine – 61
O/U Pick: Over (123)
Spread Pick: Push (Oregon -5)

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Tournament Game Projection Results (3/23/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

2019 O/U Pick Record: 19-17-4
2019 Spread Pick Record:
18-19-3

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU

Projected Score: LSU – 73, Maryland – 71
Actual Score: LSU – 69, Maryland – 67
O/U Pick: Under (147) – Correct
Spread Pick: LSU (-1.5) – Correct

(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky

Projected Score: Kentucky – 72, Wofford – 69
Actual Score: Kentucky – 62, Wofford – 56
O/U Pick: Over (138.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Wofford (+5.5) – Wrong

(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan

Projected Score: Michigan – 66, Florida – 59
Actual Score: Michigan – 64, Florida – 49
O/U Pick: Over (118.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Michigan (-6.5) – Correct

(12) Murray State vs. (4) Florida State

Projected Score: Florida State – 72, Murray State – 70
Actual Score: Florida State – 90, Murray State – 62
O/U Pick: Under (145) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Murray State (+5.5) – Wrong

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga

Projected Score: Gonzaga – 82, Baylor – 65
Actual Score: Gonzaga – 83, Baylor – 71
O/U Pick: Under (148.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Gonzaga (-12.5) – Wrong

(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan State

Projected Score: Michigan State – 76, Minnesota – 64
Actual Score: Michigan State – 70, Minnesota – 50
O/U Pick: Under (143) – Correct
Spread Pick: Michigan State (-10) – Correct

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Purdue

Projected Score: Purdue – 70, Villanova – 68
Actual Score: Purdue – 87, Villanova – 61
O/U Pick: Over (137) – Correct
Spread Pick: Villanova (+3.5) – Wrong

(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas

Projected Score: Auburn – 74, Kansas – 72
Actual Score: Auburn – 89, Kansas – 75
O/U Pick: Under (147.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Auburn (-1.5) – Correct

Tournament Game Projections (3/23/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

2019 O/U Pick Record: 16-12-4
2019 Spread Pick Record:
14-15-3

TODAY’S GAMES

(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU

Tip Time: 12:10 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: LSU – 73, Maryland – 71
O/U Pick: Under (147)
Spread Pick: LSU (-1.5)

(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky

Tip Time: 2:40 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Kentucky – 72, Wofford – 69
O/U Pick: Over (138.5)
Spread Pick: Wofford (+5.5)

(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan

Tip Time: 5:15 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Michigan – 66, Florida – 59
O/U Pick: Over (118.5)
Spread Pick: Michigan (-6.5)

(12) Murray State vs. (4) Florida State

Tip Time: 6:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Florida State – 72, Murray State – 70
O/U Pick: Under (145)
Spread Pick: Murray State (+5.5)

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga

Tip Time: 7:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Gonzaga – 82, Baylor – 65
O/U Pick: Under (148.5)
Spread Pick: Gonzaga (-12.5)

(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan State

Tip Time: 7:45 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Michigan State – 76, Minnesota – 64
O/U Pick: Under (143)
Spread Pick: Michigan State (-10)

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Purdue

Tip Time: 8:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Purdue – 70, Villanova – 68
O/U Pick: Over (137)
Spread Pick: Villanova (+3.5)

(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas

Tip Time: 9:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Auburn – 74, Kansas – 72
O/U Pick: Under (147.5)
Spread Pick: Auburn (-1.5)

Tournament Game Projection Results (3/22/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

2019 O/U Pick Record: 16-12-4
2019 Spread Pick Record:
14-15-3

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati

Projected Score: Cincinnati – 73, Iowa – 67
Actual Score: Iowa – 79, Cincinnati – 72
O/U Pick: Over (136.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Cincinnati (-4.5) – Wrong

(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss

Projected Score: Ole Miss – 71, Oklahoma – 69
Actual Score: Oklahoma – 95, Ole Miss – 72
O/U Pick: Under (143.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Ole Miss (-1) – Wrong

(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech

Projected Score: Texas Tech – 74, Northern Kentucky – 60
Actual Score: Texas Tech – 72, Northern Kentucky – 57
O/U Pick: Under (136) – Correct
Spread Pick: Texas Tech (-12.5) – Correct

(13) UC Irvine vs. (4)Kansas State 

Projected Score: Kansas State – 63, UC Irvine – 59
Actual Score: UC Irvine – 70, Kansas State – 64
O/U Pick: Over (118.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Kansas State (-3) – Wrong

(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee

Projected Score: Tennessee – 82, Colgate – 67
Actual Score: Tennessee – 77, Colgate – 70
O/U Pick: Over (147) – Push
Spread Pick: Colgate (+18.5) – Correct

(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia

Projected Score: Virginia – 79, Gardner-Webb – 54
Actual Score: Virginia – 71, Gardner-Webb – 56
O/U Pick: Over (128) – Wrong
Spread Pick: UVA (-22.5) – Wrong

(11) Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo

Projected Score: Buffalo – 82, Arizona State – 75
Actual Score: Buffalo – 91, Arizona State – 74
O/U Pick: Under (161) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Buffalo (-4.5) – Correct

(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin

Projected Score: Wisconsin – 61, Oregon – 59
Actual Score: Oregon – 72, Wisconsin – 54
O/U Pick: Over (116.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Wisconsin (-1.5) – Wrong

(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State

Projected Score: Utah State – 70, Washington – 66
Actual Score: Washington – 78, Utah State – 61
O/U Pick: Push (136) – Push
Spread Pick: Utah State (-2.5) – Wrong

(16) North Dakota State vs. (1) Duke

Projected Score: Duke – 88, North Dakota State – 59
Actual Score: Duke – 85, North Dakota State – 62
O/U Pick: Under (149) – Correct
Spread Pick: Duke (-26) – Wrong

(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston

Projected Score: Houston – 77, Georgia State – 62
Actual Score: Houston – 84, Georgia State – 55
O/U Pick: Under (141.5) –  Correct
Spread Pick: Houston (-11.5) – Correct

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State

Projected Score: Mississippi State – 70, Liberty – 65
Actual Score: Liberty – 80, Mississippi State – 76
O/U Pick: Over (132.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Liberty (+7) – Correct

(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina

Projected Score: North Carolina – 92, Iona – 69
Actual Score: North Carolina – 88, Iona – 73
O/U Pick: Under (167.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Push (UNC -23) – Push

(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU

Projected Score: VCU – 63, UCF – 62
Actual Score: UCF – 73, VCU – 58
O/U Pick: Under (127.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: VCU (Even) – Wrong

(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State

Projected Score: Iowa State – 73, Ohio State – 66
Actual Score: Ohio State – 62, Iowa State – 59
O/U Pick: Under (140.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Iowa State (-4.5) – Wrong

(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech

Projected Score: Virginia Tech – 70, Saint Louis – 57
Actual Score: Virginia Tech – 66, Saint Louis – 52
O/U Pick: Over (125) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Virginia Tech (-10) – Correct

2019 O/U Pick Record: 16-12-4
2019 Spread Pick Record:
14-15-3

Tournament Game Projections (3/22/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

TODAY’S GAMES

2019 O/U Pick Record: 7-7-2
2019 Spread Pick Record:
8-6-2

(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati

Tip Time: 12:15 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Cincinnati – 73, Iowa – 67
O/U Pick: Over (136.5)
Spread Pick: Cincinnati (-4.5)

(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss

Tip Time: 12:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Ole Miss – 71, Oklahoma – 69
O/U Pick: Under (143.5)
Spread Pick: Ole Miss (-1)

(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech

Tip Time: 1:30 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Texas Tech – 74, Northern Kentucky – 60
O/U Pick: Under (136)
Spread Pick: Texas Tech (-12.5)

(13) UC Irvine vs. (4)Kansas State 

Tip Time: 2:00 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Kansas State – 63, UC Irvine – 59
O/U Pick: Over (118.5)
Spread Pick: Kansas State (-3)

(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee

Tip Time: 2:45 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Tennessee – 82, Colgate – 67
O/U Pick: Over (147)
Spread Pick: Colgate (+18.5)

(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia

Tip Time: 3:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Virginia – 79, Gardner-Webb – 54
O/U Pick: Over (128)
Spread Pick: UVA (-22.5)

(11) Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo

Tip Time: 4 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Buffalo – 82, Arizona State – 75
O/U Pick: Under (161)
Spread Pick: Buffalo (-4.5)

(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin

Tip Time: 4:30 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Wisconsin – 61, Oregon – 59
O/U Pick: Over (116.5)
Spread Pick: Wisconsin (-1.5)

(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State

Tip Time: 6:50 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Utah State – 70, Washington – 66
O/U Pick: Push (136)
Spread Pick: Utah State (-2.5)

(16) North Dakota State vs. (1) Duke

Tip Time: 7:10 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Duke – 88, North Dakota State – 59
O/U Pick: Under (149)
Spread Pick: Duke (-26)

(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston

Tip Time: 7:20 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Houston – 77, Georgia State – 62
O/U Pick: Under (141.5)
Spread Pick: Houston (-11.5)

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State

Tip Time: 7:27 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Mississippi State – 70, Liberty – 65
O/U Pick: Over (132.5)
Spread Pick: Liberty (+7)

(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina

Tip Time: 9:20 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: North Carolina – 92, Iona – 69
O/U Pick: Under (167.5)
Spread Pick: Push (UNC -23)

(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU

Tip Time: 9:40 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: VCU – 63, UCF – 62
O/U Pick: Under (127.5)
Spread Pick: VCU (Even)

(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State

Tip Time: 9:50 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Iowa State – 73, Ohio State – 66
O/U Pick: Under (140.5)
Spread Pick: Iowa State (-4.5)

(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech

Tip Time: 9:57 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Virginia Tech – 70, Saint Louis – 57
O/U Pick: Over (125)
Spread Pick: Virginia Tech (-10)

Tournament Game Projection Results (3/21/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

2019 O/U Pick Record: 7-7-2
2019 Spread Pick Record:
8-6-2

(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville

Projected Score: Louisville – 71, Minnesota – 66
Actual Score: Minnesota – 86, Louisville – 76
O/U Pick: Push (137) – Push
Spread Pick: Louisville (-4.5) – Wrong

(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU

Projected Score: LSU – 81, Yale – 75
Actual Score: LSU – 79, Yale – 74
O/U Pick: Under (158) – Correct
Spread Pick: Yale (+8) – Correct

(12) New Mexico State vs. (5) Auburn

Projected Score: Auburn – 75, New Mexico State – 70
Actual Score: Auburn – 78, New Mexico State – 77
O/U Pick: Under (147) – Wrong
Spread Pick: New Mexico State (+7) – Correct

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida State 

Projected Score: Florida State – 70, Vermont – 62
Actual Score: Florida State – 76, Vermont – 69
O/U Pick: Over (131.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Vermont (+9.5) – Correct

(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan State

Projected Score: Michigan State – 76, Bradley – 58
Actual Score: Michigan State – 76, Bradley – 65
O/U Pick: Over (132.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Michigan State (-17.5) – Wrong

(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland

Projected Score: Maryland – 76, Belmont – 73
Actual Score: Maryland – 79, Belmont – 77
O/U Pick: Under (151.5) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Belmont (+4) – Correct

(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas

Projected Score: Kansas – 75, Northeastern – 68
Actual Score: Kansas – 87, Northeastern – 53
O/U Pick: Over (142) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Kansas (-6.5) – Correct

(12) Murray State vs. (5) Marquette

Projected Score: Marquette – 76, Murray State – 73
Actual Score: Murray State – 83, Marquette – 64
O/U Pick: Under (150.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Push (Marquette -3) – Push

(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada

Projected Score: Nevada – 69, Florida – 65
Actual Score: Florida – 70, Nevada – 61
O/U Pick: Over (133) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Nevada (-2.5) – Wrong

(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky

Projected Score: Kentucky – 77, Abilene Christian – 56
Actual Score: Kentucky – 79, Abilene Christian – 44
O/U Pick: Over (131) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Abilene Christian (+21.5) – Wrong

(11) St. Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova

Projected Score: St. Mary’s – 66, Villanova – 65
Actual Score: Villanova – 61, St. Mary’s – 57
O/U Pick: Over (128) – Wrong
Spread Pick: St. Mary’s (+4.5) – Correct

(16) Fairleigh Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga

Projected Score: Gonzaga – 90, Fairleigh Dickinson – 62
Actual Score: Gonzaga – 87, Fairleigh Dickinson – 49
O/U Pick: Under (153.5) – Correct
Spread Pick: Push (Gonzaga -28) – Push

(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan

Projected Score: Michigan – 72, Montana – 59
Actual Score: Michigan – 74, Montana – 55
O/U Pick: Over (129) – Push
Spread Pick: Montana (+15.5) – Wrong

(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford

Projected Score: Wofford – 74, Seton Hall – 71
Actual Score: Wofford – 84, Seton Hall – 68
O/U Pick: Over (144) – Correct
Spread Pick: Wofford (-1.5) – Correct

(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue

Projected Score: Purdue – 70, Old Dominion – 58
Actual Score: Purdue – 61, Old Dominion – 48
O/U Pick: Over (126) – Wrong
Spread Pick: Old Dominion (+13.5) – Correct

(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse

Projected Score: Syracuse – 66, Baylor – 64
Actual Score: Baylor – 78, Syracuse – 69
O/U Pick: Over (129) – Correct
Spread Pick: Syracuse (-1.5) – Wrong

2019 O/U Pick Record: 7-7-2
2019 Spread Pick Record:
8-6-2

Tournament Game Projections (3/21/2019)

Here are my projections for today’s tournament games, as well as instructions on how to bet them against Vegas. I’ll keep track of my model’s O/U and spread picks during the tournament as it progresses. Good luck!

TODAY’S GAMES

(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville

Tip Time: 12:15 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Louisville – 71, Minnesota – 66
O/U Pick: Push (137)
Spread Pick: Louisville (-4.5)

(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU

Tip Time: 12:40 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: LSU – 81, Yale – 75
O/U Pick: Under (158)
Spread Pick: Yale (+8)

(12) New Mexico State vs. (5) Auburn

Tip Time: 1:30 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Auburn – 75, New Mexico State – 70
O/U Pick: Under (147)
Spread Pick: New Mexico State (+7)

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida State 

Tip Time: 2:00 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Florida State – 70, Vermont – 62
O/U Pick: Over (131.5)
Spread Pick: Vermont (+9.5)

(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan State

Tip Time: 2:45 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Michigan State – 76, Bradley – 58
O/U Pick: Over (132.5)
Spread Pick: Michigan State (-17.5)

(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland

Tip Time: 3:10 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Maryland – 76, Belmont – 73
O/U Pick: Under (151.5)
Spread Pick: Belmont (+4)

(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas

Tip Time: 4 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Kansas – 75, Northeastern – 68
O/U Pick: Over (142)
Spread Pick: Kansas (-6.5)

(12) Murray State vs. (5) Marquette

Tip Time: 4:30 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Marquette – 76, Murray State – 73
O/U Pick: Under (150.5)
Spread Pick: Push (Marquette -3)

(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada

Tip Time: 6:50 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Nevada – 69, Florida – 65
O/U Pick: Over (133)
Spread Pick: Nevada (-2.5)

(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky

Tip Time: 7:10 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Kentucky – 77, Abilene Christian – 56
O/U Pick: Over (131)
Spread Pick: Abilene Christian (+21.5)

(11) St. Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova

Tip Time: 7:20 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: St. Mary’s – 66, Villanova – 65
O/U Pick: Over (128)
Spread Pick: St. Mary’s (+4.5)

(16) Fairleigh Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga

Tip Time: 9:20 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Gonzaga – 90, Fairleigh Dickinson – 62
O/U Pick: Under (153.5)
Spread Pick: Push (Gonzaga -28)

(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan

Tip Time: 9:20 PM EST
TV Channel: TNT
Projected Score: Michigan – 72, Montana – 59
O/U Pick: Over (129)
Spread Pick: Montana (+15.5)

(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford

Tip Time: 9:40 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Wofford – 74, Seton Hall – 71
O/U Pick: Over (144)
Spread Pick: Wofford (-1.5)

(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue

Tip Time: 9:50 PM EST
TV Channel: TBS
Projected Score: Purdue – 70, Old Dominion – 58
O/U Pick: Over (126)
Spread Pick: Old Dominion (+13.5)

(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse

Tip Time: 9:57 PM EST
TV Channel: TruTV
Projected Score: Syracuse – 66, Baylor – 64
O/U Pick: Over (129)
Spread Pick: Syracuse (-1.5)

How to Win Your Bracket Pool (2019 Edition)

Before you begin reading this article, I want to make one thing abundantly clear: I’m not telling you how to fill out the perfect bracket; that’s impossible (insert cliche about the astronomically small odds of this ever happening). Rather, I’m giving you statistically sound, pragmatic advice on how to win your bracket pool between you and your friends (and the spoils that come along with it). If you follow these foolproof steps, you should finish at (or at the very least near) the top:

Step 1: Advance all 1 and 2 seeds to the Sweet 16.

Okay, I know, this is super chalky and people may rag on you for making this move. Furthermore, the odds are heavily against all eight 1 and 2 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. However, picking which 1 or 2 seed is going to get upset is a fool’s gambit. You put yourself at risk of losing easy points that your opponents will gain. You’re better off taking a couple gambles in other early round games, and just playing it close to the vest here.

To further drive home my point, consider this – in the last eight tournaments, 43 of the 64 teams (67%) on the 1 and 2 seed line advanced to the Sweet 16. If you can essentially lock in 5 or 6 correct teams in your predicted Sweet 16, you should do it.

Step 2: Advance all 3 and 4 seeds to the second round.

The same chalkiness mentioned in step 1 definitely applies here as well, but the same logic applies as well. The difference here is that a lower seed upset over a 3 or 4 in the second round is much more likely  in comparison to a similar 1 or 2 upset. Thus, auto-advancing the 3 and 4 seeds should only apply to the first round. It’s fun bragging about being the one person who accurately picked the crazy 14 over 3 upset, but you know what’s more fun? Bragging about winning your bracket pool.

In a similar fashion to step 1, I really want to drive home this point as well. In the last five tournaments, 33 of the 40 teams (83%) on the 3 and 4 seed line advanced to the second round.

Step 3: Use the following statistical data to fill out the rest of your bracket.
(*Note*: The 0% values listed do not imply that the result cannot happen. Rather, the result is extremely unlikely [less than 0.5% likelihood])

In years past, I had developed a predictive model to attempt to project who has the best chance of advancing far into the tournament. I refined the model to further optimize the predictive results, then normalized the projections for each region to create a probability of advancing in any given round for every team in the tournament. I used historic tournament results from games that took place between 2010 to 2017.

As part of an update for this year, I moved to a model that predicts the exact score of each game. After the projected score is developed, the model turns that into a projected probability of victory, then uses rules of conditional probability to project teams advancing in the tournament. I also updated the training data for the model to include tournament results from games that took place between 2014 and 2018. I felt that games during this time period were more indicative of future tournament results, especially given the NCAA’s freedom of movement rule implementation.

East Region

2019EastRegion

South Region

2019SouthRegion

Midwest Region

2019MidwestRegion

West Region

2019WestRegion.PNG

Bonus TL;DR version: Synthesizing the above charts for people who don’t like numbers.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

Going crazy picking a ton of upsets doesn’t do you any good. Instead, I would pick two (or three tops if you’re feeling real wild) from the following options:

  • (11) St. Mary’s over (6) Villanova
  • (11) Belmont over (6) Maryland
  • (12) Oregon over (5) Wisconsin
  • (12) Murray State over (5) Marquette
  • (12) New Mexico State over (5) Auburn

Toss-Up Games

These are the 7/10 and 8/9 games that could get either way. This year, the model actually favored the 7’s and 8’s in every single match-up. However, one of the 7/10 match-ups and three of the 8/9 match-ups are pretty close relative to expectation. Thus, I recommend the following strategy:

  • (8) VCU vs. (9) UCF – Flip a coin.
  • (7) Louisville vs. (10) Minnesota – Take Louisville.
  • (8) Ole Miss vs. (9) Oklahoma – Flip a coin.
  • (7) Cincinnati vs. (10) Iowa – Take Cincinnati.
  • (8) Utah State vs. (9) Washington – Take Utah State.
  • (7) Wofford vs. (10) Seton Hall – Take Wofford.
  • (8) Syracuse vs. (9) Baylor – Flip a coin.
  • (7) Nevada vs. (10) Florida – Flip a coin.

Best Final Four Picks by Region

  • East: (1) Duke, (2) Michigan State, (4) Virginia Tech
  • South: (1) Virginia, (2) Tennessee
  • Midwest: (1) UNC, (3) Houston, (2) Kentucky, (5) Auburn, (6) Iowa State
  • West: (1) Gonzaga, (3) Texas Tech, (2) Michigan

Best Champion Picks

  • (1) Gonzaga
  • (1) Virginia
  • (1) Duke
  • (1) North Carolina
  • (2) Kentucky
  • (3) Houston
  • (2) Michigan State
  • (2) Tennessee
  • (3) Texas Tech
  • (2) Michigan

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 17th (Final)

Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team websites are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!

THE BRACKET

Bracket 031719

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Gonzaga

The 2 Seeds

Tennessee, Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan

The 3 Seeds

Houston, LSU, Florida State, Texas Tech

The 4 Seeds

Kansas, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas State

The 5 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Villanova, Auburn

The 6 Seeds

Marquette, Mississippi State, Maryland, Cincinnati

The 7 Seeds

Buffalo, Louisville, Nevada, Wofford

The 8 Seeds

Seton Hall, Iowa, Ole Miss, Minnesota

The 9 Seeds

UCF, Utah State, Baylor, Syracuse

The 10 Seeds

Oklahoma, Washington, Florida, TCU

The 11 Seeds

VCU, Ohio State, St. John’s, Oregon, Temple, Arizona State

The 12 Seeds

St. Mary’s, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty

The 13 Seeds

UC Irvine, Northeastern, Vermont, Old Dominion

The 14 Seeds

Saint Louis, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky

The 15 Seeds

Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Gardner-Webb

The 16 Seeds

Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, NC Central

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BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Ohio State, St. John’s, Temple, Arizona State

First Four Out

Indiana, Belmont, UNC-Greensboro, NC State

Next Four Out

Alabama, Furman, Xavier, Creighton

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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big Ten (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (4), American (4), Atlantic 10 (2), Mountain West (2), Pac-12 (2), WCC (2)

ACC – Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

America East – Vermont

American – Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Atlantic 10 – VCU, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun – Liberty

Big 12 – Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU

Big East – Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s

Big Sky – Montana

Big South – Gardner-Webb

Big Ten – Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State

Big West – UC Irvine

Colonial – Northeastern

Conference USA – Old Dominion

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Buffalo

MEAC – NC Central

Missouri Valley – Bradley

Mountain West – Nevada, Utah State

Northeast – Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Washington, Oregon

Patriot – Colgate

SEC – Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Abilene Christian

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Georgia State

SWAC – Prairie View A&M

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Games to Watch (3/17/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

UMBC (21-12) vs. Vermont (26-6)

Projected Score: Vermont – 66, UMBC – 59
Actual Score: Vermont – 66, UMBC – 49

Wisconsin (23-9) vs. Michigan State (26-6)

Projected Score: Michigan State – 68, Wisconsin – 63
Actual Score: Michigan State – 67, Wisconsin – 55

Florida (19-14) vs. Auburn (24-9)

Projected Score: Auburn – 69, Florida – 65
Actual Score: Auburn – 65, Florida – 62

NC Central (17-15) vs. Norfolk State (21-12)

Projected Score: Norfolk State – 71, NC Central – 67
Actual Score: NC Central – 50, Norfolk State – 47

Tennessee (28-4) vs. Kentucky (27-5)

Projected Score: Tennessee – 72, Kentucky – 71
Actual Score: Tennessee – 82, Kentucky – 78

Memphis (21-12) vs. Houston (30-2)

Projected Score: Houston – 78, Memphis – 71
Actual Score: Houston – 61, Memphis – 58

Minnesota (21-12) vs. Michigan (27-5)

Projected Score: Michigan – 68, Minnesota – 61
Actual Score: Michigan – 76, Minnesota – 49

Iowa State (22-11) vs. Kansas (25-8)

Projected Score: Kansas – 74, Iowa State – 71
Actual Score: Iowa State – 78, Kansas – 66

San Diego State (21-12) vs. Utah State (27-6)

Projected Score: Utah State – 72, San Diego State – 65
Actual Score: Utah State – 64, San Diego State – 57

Texas Southern (21-12) vs. Prairie View A&M (21-12)

Projected Score: Prairie View A&M – 81, Texas Southern – 80
Actual Score: Prairie View A&M – 92, Texas Southern – 86

Seton Hall (20-12) vs. Villanova (24-9)

Projected Score: Villanova – 70, Seton Hall – 66
Actual Score: Villanova – 74, Seton Hall – 72

Bowling Green (22-11) vs. Buffalo (30-3)

Projected Score: Buffalo – 85, Bowling Green – 73
Actual Score: Buffalo – 87, Bowling Green – 73

Eastern Washington (16-17) vs. Montana (25-8)

Projected Score: Montana – 74, Eastern Washington – 67
Actual Score: Montana – 68, Eastern Washington – 62

Florida State (27-6) vs. Duke (28-5)

Projected Score: Duke – 78, Florida State – 71
Actual Score: Duke – 73, Florida State – 63

Western Kentucky (20-13) vs. Old Dominion (25-8)

Projected Score: Old Dominion – 62, Western Kentucky – 61
Actual Score: Old Dominion – 62, Western Kentucky – 56

New Orleans (19-12) vs. Abilene Christian (26-6)

Projected Score: Abilene Christian – 70, New Orleans – 64
Actual Score: Abilene Christian – 77, New Orleans – 60

Grand Canyon (20-12) vs. New Mexico State (29-4)

Projected Score: New Mexico State – 72, Grand Canyon – 67
Actual Score: New Mexico State – 89, Grand Canyon – 57

Oregon (22-12) vs. Washington (26-7)

Projected Score: Washington – 61, Oregon – 60
Actual Score: Oregon – 68, Washington – 48

CSU Fullerton (16-16) vs. UC Irvine (29-5)

Projected Score: UC Irvine – 69, CSU Fullerton – 60
Actual Score: UC Irvine – 92, CSU Fullerton – 64

2019 Model Pick Record: 229-110

TODAY’S GAMES

Yale (21-7) vs. Harvard (18-10)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: Yale – 75, Harvard – 70

Tennessee (29-4) vs. Auburn (25-9)

Tip Time: 1 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Tennessee – 76, Auburn – 71

Saint Louis (22-12) vs. St. Bonaventure (18-15)

Tip Time: 1 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: St. Bonaventure – 61, Saint Louis – 60

UT Arlington (17-15) vs. Georgia State (23-9)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: Georgia State – 71, UT Arlington – 66

Cincinnati (27-6) vs. Houston (31-2)

Tip Time: 3:15 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Houston – 66, Cincinnati – 59

Michigan State (27-6) vs. Michigan (28-5)

Tip Time: 3:30 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Michigan State – 67, Michigan – 66