Fantasy Football | 1-3-1 Sports

There exists a website called Eat This, Not That! which gives practical advice on how to lose weight and eat healthier without going on an explicit diet. I love the concept enough that I wanted to translate it to Fantasy Football. Below is the final part in a four-part series of simple, practical drafting advice columns regarding players I would avoid in drafts this year, along with alternative solutions that are being drafted in later rounds.

Link: QB Edition

Link: RB Edition

Link: WR Edition

TE

Draft Him: Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 6th Round
Notes: Aaron Rodgers lost his favorite red zone target this off-season in the form of Jordy Nelson’s departure; someone needs to fill in that large void. Who better than a 6’7″ freak of nature who had 10 receiving TDs last season? A-Rod has never had the luxury of having a stud TE, and I think he’s likely to take advantage of that this year. The value potential of this pick is phenomenal, especially when you consider he’s going four rounds later than…

NOT HIM: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
ADP: 2nd Round
Notes: Let me start by saying that I do think that he is going to finish as the top player at the TE position this season from a fantasy perspective. Having said that, I do not think he’s going to be so much better than his peers that he’s worthy of one of your first two picks – let someone else make that reach. He hasn’t played in all 16 games in a season since 2011, and with all the the pass-catchers that Brady lost this off-season, teams are going to be able to go all in on blanketing Gronk. Early rounds in the draft aren’t a time to get cute or aggressive; they’re a time to be smart and solid.

Draft Him: Trey Burton, Chicago Bears
ADP: 8th Round
Notes: Young quarterbacks who haven’t developed the ability to go through their progressions at an adequate pace often use their tight end as a safety valve. Mitchell Trubisky falls under this umbrella, and the beneficiary will be Burton. The flashes Burton showed when Zach Ertz was hurt last season, when combined with Matt Nagy’s historic tight end usage, leave me no choice but to recommend targeting him later in drafts as a value TE. His upside is through the roof, unlike…

NOT HIM: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 7th Round
Notes: Rudolph has had exactly one excellent season (2016) since coming into the league in 2011. He’s had issues with injuries and multiple surgeries in the past, including ankle surgery this off-season. Why he’s coming off the board before young guys with higher ceilings (Burton and Evan Engram) and a veteran with a higher floor (Delanie Walker) is beyond me.

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Draft Him, Not Him! (WR Edition)

Posted on August 28, 2018 by JLCS

There exists a website called Eat This, Not That! which gives practical advice on how to lose weight and eat healthier without going on an explicit diet. I love the concept enough that I wanted to translate it to Fantasy Football. Below is the third part in a four-part series of simple, practical drafting advice columns regarding players I would avoid in drafts this year, along with alternative solutions that are being drafted in later rounds.

Link: QB Edition

Link: RB Edition

WR

Draft Him: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 3rd Round
Notes: With the departure of Jordy Nelson this off-season, Adams slides into the WR1 role for the Packers; you should let him slide into the WR1 role for your fantasy team as well. He’s had the talent and athleticism since coming into the league, and his route-running, understanding of the game, and rapport with Aaron Rodgers have all improved each season. Add that to the increase in targets he’s likely to see, and you can wait the extra round to draft him, as opposed to the flashier pick of…

NOT HIM: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 2nd Round
Notes: He is an athletic freak, and no one can deny that; he does things on a football field at the receiver position that are hard to fathom. As part of that, he really lays his body on the line, and it results in perpetual injuries (often of the soft tissue variety). He’s entirely capable of carrying your team with a casual 30-point week, but I would rather not burn my second pick on a guy that is constantly at less than 100% health.

Draft Him: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
ADP: 4th Round
Notes: After great rookie and sophomore campaigns, the 2017 expectations for Cooper were through the roof. He treated us to one of the biggest duds of a fantasy season of all-time from an ADP-to-results standpoint. I think it was readily evident that something was askew with his health last season, and his numbers suffered accordingly. That’s great news for savvy 2018 owners, as you can take advantage of him being undervalued in drafts this season if you’re smart about it. You can also pass on the over-hyped…

NOT HIM: Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 3rd Round
Notes: Hill has an electricity about him, but he hasn’t been featured in the red zone enough under Andy Reid, and I don’t expect that to change in 2018. The Chiefs also have a greenhorn QB at the helm in the form of Patrick Mahomes, so expect some teeth cutting on that front. Add in the off-season addition of Sammy Watkins to reduce Hill’s target share, and you have a recipe for an overly-inflated ADP.

Draft Him: Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
ADP: 6th Round
Notes: I normally preach volume and targets, but there are some valuable exceptions to the rule; Jones is one of the few. He’s a vertical threat similar to Tyreek Hill, but with a better, more experienced QB and an ADP three rounds lower. Jones was a top-10 fantasy wideout last season, but somehow he’s still not going in the first five rounds. And for whatever reason, this guy is…

NOT HIM: Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
ADP: 5th Round
Notes: He may get off to a hot start with Julian Edelman serving a four-game suspension for PED use. Having said that, I think he’ll settle into more of a WR3-type season when Edelman returns, and I’m not looking to draft a WR3 with one of my first five selections. The Patriots are notorious for spreading the wealth in their offense, so I’m not falling victim to this trendy pick.

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Draft Him, Not Him! (RB Edition)

Posted on August 27, 2018 by JLCS

There exists a website called Eat This, Not That! which gives practical advice on how to lose weight and eat healthier without going on an explicit diet. I love the concept enough that I wanted to translate it to Fantasy Football. Below is the second part in a four-part series of simple, practical drafting advice columns regarding players I would avoid in drafts this year, along with alternative solutions that are being drafted in later rounds.

Link: QB Edition

RB

Draft Him: Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 2nd Round
Notes: He is far from being the most efficient player at the position, but MGIII has what matters: volume. His rushing attempts and receptions have gone up year over year since being drafted in 2015. If you can get a heavy volume RB1 on the way back in the second round, you do it, instead of overpaying for…

NOT HIM: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 1st Round
Notes: Two peaks at the beginning and the end of the season, with a valley in between the two – that was the story for Hunt in his rookie season last year. He’s a talented guy and his advanced metrics are great, but with Spencer Ware back in the fold and Andy Reid’s penchant for arbitrarily letting his running backs disappear, I’m not spending my first round pick on him.

Draft Him: Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
ADP: 5th Round
Notes: All it takes is a quick look at Miller’s splits pre-Watson injury versus post-Watson injury to realize he’s being undervalued at his current ADP. He’s a three-down back that has gone over 1000 yards and 6+ TDs for four straight seasons, and he’s going in the fifth round? Maybe it’s not a flashy pick, but he can be a solid, steady RB2, and is much safer and smarter than…

NOT HIM: Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 3rd Round
Notes: His measurables were off the charts coming into the league, but one reservation many experts had was his ability to stay healthy and withstand the grind of being an every-down back. Lo and behold, he already suffered a leg injury that resulted in him missing the majority of this preseason. People are using a top 3 pick on a guy that has spent four years in the league and still never broken 1000 yards from scrimmage or the 5 TD mark? I’ll pass.

Draft Him: Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots
ADP: 7th Round
Notes: Given Sony Michel’s surgery, if he can stay healthy for all (or at least a majority) of the season, it seems like he’s going to be the guy in New England. Sure, picking the Patriots running back to own is always a massive crapshoot, but the dual threat nature of Burkhead should allow him to be utilized frequently. His route-running and pass-catching ability is far superior to that of…

NOT HIM: Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
ADP: 5th Round
Notes: Beastmode sure is fun to watch, but I’m not aware of many fantasy leagues that award points for broken tackles (though I wouldn’t be opposed to such a concept). At the end of the day, you have to look at the raw numerical production Lynch puts up. From a fantasy perspective, it just isn’t worth one of your first five picks. Add that to the fact that he’s 32 and has carried the ball over 2000 times in his NFL career, and you should come to one conclusion: let someone else overpay for his services.

Draft Him: Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 13th Round
Notes: Remember earlier when I suggested that you would be wasting a third-round pick on McKinnon? In the same vein, people are really missing out on the value of nabbing Breida with a flier in one of the last rounds of a draft. He’s a young guy that is more likely to get significant playing time this season than…

NOT HIM: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 9th Round
Notes: I understand that Carlos Hyde has a significant injury history, but I’m not using a pick in the first ten rounds banking on someone getting hurt. Add that to the fact that Duke Johnson has parked himself in a role in the backfield during passing down situations, and I just cannot justify selecting the rookie.

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Draft Him, Not Him! (QB Edition)

Posted on August 23, 2018 by JLCS

There exists a website called Eat This, Not That! which gives practical advice on how to lose weight and eat healthier without going on an explicit diet. I love the concept enough that I wanted to translate it to Fantasy Football. Below is the first part in a four-part series of simple, practical drafting advice columns regarding players I would avoid in drafts this year, along with alternative solutions that are being drafted in later rounds.

QB

Draft Him: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 7th Round
Notes: Rumpelstiltskin is coming off a superb 2017 season from a fantasy perspective (the best of his career). With the Seattle defense likely to regress this year, he will be expected to work a little more of his magic to keep the team in games. He’s a more proven commodity than the pricier alternative…

NOT HIM: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
ADP: 5th Round
Notes: He was stellar when given the reins as a rookie, but he is still somebody who has torn both ACLs during his playing career. Add that to the fact that teams now have game tape and an off-season to prepare, and the cost just isn’t justified.

Draft Him: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: 14th Round
Notes: He may have taken a step back from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign, but that was driven in part by Zeke’s suspension. Some may worry about the loss of Dez Bryant. However, from a fantasy perspective, that may result in addition by subtraction, as it forces Dak to scramble and make something out of nothing more frequently. Considering how cheap he is going for, he’s a better option than…

NOT HIM: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 10th Round
Notes: Call me a cynic, but I just do not buy the hype. I understand that Kyle Shanahan is a wizard, but between the relatively unimpressive receiving corps and the lack of game experience, I don’t think he meets the tremendous expectations.