Draft Him, Not Him! (WR Edition)

There exists a website called Eat This, Not That! which gives practical advice on how to lose weight and eat healthier without going on an explicit diet. I love the concept enough that I wanted to translate it to Fantasy Football. Below is the third part in a four-part series of simple, practical drafting advice columns regarding players I would avoid in drafts this year, along with alternative solutions that are being drafted in later rounds.

Link: QB Edition

Link: RB Edition

WR

Draft Him: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
ADP:
3rd Round
Notes:
With the departure of Jordy Nelson this off-season, Adams slides into the WR1 role for the Packers; you should let him slide into the WR1 role for your fantasy team as well. He’s had the talent and athleticism since coming into the league, and his route-running, understanding of the game, and rapport with Aaron Rodgers have all improved each season. Add that to the increase in targets he’s likely to see, and you can wait the extra round to draft him, as opposed to the flashier pick of…

NOT HIM: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
ADP:
2nd Round
Notes:
He is an athletic freak, and no one can deny that; he does things on a football field at the receiver position that are hard to fathom. As part of that, he really lays his body on the line, and it results in perpetual injuries (often of the soft tissue variety). He’s entirely capable of carrying your team with a casual 30-point week, but I would rather not burn my second pick on a guy that is constantly at less than 100% health.

Draft Him: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
ADP:
4th Round
Notes:
After great rookie and sophomore campaigns, the 2017 expectations for Cooper were through the roof. He treated us to one of the biggest duds of a fantasy season of all-time from an ADP-to-results standpoint. I think it was readily evident that something was askew with his health last season, and his numbers suffered accordingly. That’s great news for savvy 2018 owners, as you can take advantage of him being undervalued in drafts this season if you’re smart about it. You can also pass on the over-hyped… 

NOT HIM: Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP:
3rd Round
Notes:
Hill has an electricity about him, but he hasn’t been featured in the red zone enough under Andy Reid, and I don’t expect that to change in 2018. The Chiefs also have a greenhorn QB at the helm in the form of Patrick Mahomes, so expect some teeth cutting on that front. Add in the off-season addition of Sammy Watkins to reduce Hill’s target share, and you have a recipe for an overly-inflated ADP.

Draft Him: Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
ADP:
6th Round
Notes:
I normally preach volume and targets, but there are some valuable exceptions to the rule; Jones is one of the few. He’s a vertical threat similar to Tyreek Hill, but with a better, more experienced QB and an ADP three rounds lower. Jones was a top-10 fantasy wideout last season, but somehow he’s still not going in the first five rounds. And for whatever reason, this guy is…

NOT HIM: Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
ADP:
5th Round
Notes:
He may get off to a hot start with Julian Edelman serving a four-game suspension for PED use. Having said that, I think he’ll settle into more of a WR3-type season when Edelman returns, and I’m not looking to draft a WR3 with one of my first five selections. The Patriots are notorious for spreading the wealth in their offense, so I’m not falling victim to this trendy pick.

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