Joe’s Weekly NFL Picks (Week 3)

I had a rough go of it with last week’s picks, including my mortal lock that the Pats would win. In case you missed it, they were stunned by the Cardinals after a last-second field goal attempt by Stephen Gostkowski sailed wide. Here’s hoping I can turn it around this week!

WEEK 2 RECORD: 9-7
SEASON RECORD: 20-12

WEEK 3

THU, SEP 20

8:20 PM ET, NY Giants @ Carolina – Eli Manning threw for enough passing yards to cover two games last week, and it might take a near-repeat performance to go into Carolina and snag a win. It will be interesting to see how the Giants handle the backfield with Ahmad Bradshaw’s mysterious neck injury.
PICK: Giants, 28-21.
CONFIDENCE: 6

SUN, SEP 23

1:00 PM ET, St. Louis @ Chicago – Chicago as a team isn’t nearly as bad as they played in last week’s Thursday night debacle at Green Bay. I expect Jay Cutler and company to bounce back against a mediocre St. Louis team.
PICK: Bears, 27-23.
CONFIDENCE: 10

1:00 PM ET, Tampa Bay @ Dallas – I really have no idea what to make of either of these teams. Tampa Bay should be 2-0, but their secondary went from glory to goat in the 4th quarter last week. Dallas managed to do what Tampa Bay couldn’t by beating the Giants, and I like how Dallas plays at home.
PICK: Cowboys, 24-20.
CONFIDENCE: 4

1:00 PM ET, San Francisco @ Minnesota – Some people say to hide your mistakes and sweep them under the rug as a writer, but I REFUSE! Last week, my 16-point confidence pick was the Patriots to take care of business against the Cardinals. As I brought up in my open, I was WRONG. WRONG. WRONG. There is just no way it happens two weeks in a row with this lopsided matchup on the slate of games, right?
PICK: 49ers, 24-14.
CONFIDENCE: 16

1:00 PM ET, Detroit @ Tennessee – Jake Locker looks like a confused little boy out on the field, and I feel bad for him and CJ2K in their futile attempts to play behind that atrocity of an offensive line. Detroit should be able to handle their business on the road here if they think they’re a playoff team.
PICK: Lions, 31-20.
CONFIDENCE: 11

1:00 PM ET, Cincinnati @ Washington – Through two games, RGIII looks like the real deal; however, it’s only 2 games. That being said, Brandon Weeden looked like Dan Marino last week when he torched the Bengals’ defense for 300+ yards and two scores. Expect the man who refuses to display the Nike logo to have a field day this week.
PICK: Redskins, 27-24.
CONFIDENCE: 5

1:00 PM ET, NY Jets @ Miami – I don’t think Reggie Bush can maintain his current pace the entire season, and I haven’t seen anything from Ryan Tannehill that leads me to believe he can beat a solid team. This leads me to my next point: victories over the Raiders should only be worth ¾ of a win this year.
PICK: Jets, 20-17.
CONFIDENCE: 7

1:00 PM ET, Kansas City @ New Orleans – Both these teams are 0-2, but only one of them is really as bad as their record indicates. Hint: It’s NOT the Saints. I expect to see a lot of passing yards in what should be a very high-scoring affair.
PICK: Saints, 34-24.
CONFIDENCE: 14

1:00 PM ET, Buffalo @ Cleveland – C.J. Spiller…and that’s all I have to say about that.
PICK: Bills, 27-13.
CONFIDENCE: 9

1:00 PM ET, Jacksonville @ Indianapolis – Back in the mid-2000’s, you’d expect a classic battle for the AFC South division lead when these two rivals squared off. Nowadays, you have a mediocre team led by a rookie quarterback playing at home against an awful team led by a second-year signal-caller. Go ahead and give me the mediocre home team.
PICK: Colts, 24-21.
CONFIDENCE: 8

4:05 PM ET, Philadelphia @ Arizona – The Cardinals are SERIOUSLY 2-0? You serious Clark? The Eagles are also 2-0, and have managed to win not one, but BOTH of their games by exactly 1 point. I think the Eagles are for real, and I think the Cardinals are frauds.
PICK: Eagles, 24-17.
CONFIDENCE: 12

4:05 PM ET, Atlanta @ San Diego – Another matchup of undefeated teams, although in this case, I believe both these teams are playoff-caliber. The Chargers have looked great, but they’ve played Tennessee and Oakland, so it’s hard to put a ton of stock into those victories. Atlanta has looked great as well, and they actually have a victory over a legitimate opponent in Denver. I think the Falcons make the long trip out West and snag a close victory.
PICK: Falcons, 24-23.
CONFIDENCE: 2

4:25 PM ET, Houston @ Denver – Until either team proves me wrong, I’m sticking to my preseason Super Bowl picks of Houston and San Francisco. That doesn’t mean I think either team is infallible, and I think this week the Texans show it, as Peyton Manning orchestrates a come-from-behind, game-winning drive in the final minutes at home.
PICK: Broncos, 27-24.
CONFIDENCE: 1

4:25 PM ET, Pittsburgh @ Oakland – The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL, and they don’t really have a reasonable chance to win a game until they play Jacksonville in week 7.
PICK: Steelers, 27-17.
CONFIDENCE: 15

8:3 0 PM ET, New England @ Baltimore – Both these teams have to be severely disappointed in their 1-1 records, but they have no one to blame but themselves. Baltimore is a better team this year, and in my opinion, the only serious threat to the Texans in the AFC.
PICK: Ravens, 27-24.
CONFIDENCE: 3

MON, SEP 24

8:35 PM ET Green Bay @ Seattle – I know Russell Wilson is a great playmaker, but I also believe that Seattle expects him to be more of a “game manager” than a “game changer”. I think his attempts to keep up with A-Rod and the Packers offense will cause him to force some throws, resulting in a couple costly interceptions and a Seattle defeat.
PICK: Packers, 31-17.
CONFIDENCE: 13