Games to Watch (1/22/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

Maryland (16-3) @ Michigan State (16-2)

Projected Score: Michigan State – 77, Maryland – 69
Actual Score: Michigan State – 69, Maryland – 55

Virginia Tech (15-2) @ North Carolina (14-4)

Projected Score: North Carolina – 78, Virginia Tech – 74
Actual Score: North Carolina – 103, Virginia Tech – 82

Iowa State (14-4) @ Kansas (15-3)

Projected Score: Kansas – 76, Iowa State – 72
Actual Score: Kansas – 80, Iowa State – 76

2019 Model Pick Record: 55-23

TODAY’S GAMES

Minnesota (14-4) @ Michigan (17-1)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: Big Ten Network
Projected Score: Michigan – 76, Minnesota – 62

Mississippi State (14-3) @ Kentucky (14-3)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Kentucky – 77, Mississippi State – 69

Texas Tech (15-3) @ Kansas State (14-4)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: Texas Tech – 61, Kansas State – 60

Villanova (14-4) @ Butler (12-7)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
Projected Score: Villanova – 71, Butler – 70

Clemson (11-6) @ Florida State (13-5)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPNU
Projected Score: Florida State – 75, Clemson – 68

Duke (15-2) @ Pittsburgh (12-6)

Tip Time: 9 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Duke – 82, Pittsburgh – 70

Ole Miss (14-3) @ Alabama (11-6)

Tip Time: 9 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPNU
Projected Score: Ole Miss – 74, Alabama – 73

Games to Watch (1/21/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

There were no tournament-relevant games being played today.

2019 Model Pick Record: 52-23

TODAY’S GAMES

Maryland (16-3) @ Michigan State (16-2)

Tip Time: 6:30 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
Projected Score: Michigan State – 77, Maryland – 69

Virginia Tech (15-2) @ North Carolina (14-4)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: North Carolina – 78, Virginia Tech – 74

Iowa State (14-4) @ Kansas (15-3)

Tip Time: 9 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Kansas – 76, Iowa State – 72

Games to Watch (1/20/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

Michigan (17-0) @ Wisconsin (11-6)

Projected Score: Michigan – 67, Wisconsin – 63
Actual Score: Wisconsin – 64, Michigan – 54

Alabama (11-5) @ Tennessee (15-1)

Projected Score: Tennessee – 82, Alabama – 68
Actual Score: Tennessee – 71, Alabama – 68

Indiana (12-5) @ Purdue (11-6)

Projected Score: Purdue – 76, Indiana – 69
Actual Score: Purdue – 70, Indiana – 55

Pittsburgh (12-5) @ Syracuse (12-5)

Projected Score: Syracuse – 71, Pittsburgh – 63
Actual Score: Syracuse – 74, Pittsburgh – 63

Kentucky (13-3) @ Auburn (13-3)

Projected Score: Auburn – 76, Kentucky – 73
Actual Score: Kentucky – 82, Auburn – 80

TCU (13-3) @ Kansas State (13-4)

Projected Score: TCU – 68, Kansas State – 67
Actual Score: Kansas State – 65, TCU – 55

St. John’s (15-3) @ Butler (11-7)

Projected Score: Butler – 77, St. John’s – 73
Actual Score: Butler – 80, St. John’s – 71

Virginia (16-0) @ Duke (14-2)

Projected Score: Duke – 70, Virginia – 68
Actual Score: Duke – 72, Virginia – 70

Furman (15-3) @ Wofford (14-4)

Projected Score: Wofford – 76, Furman – 69
Actual Score: Wofford – 59, Furman – 54

Oklahoma (13-4) @ Texas (10-7)

Projected Score: Texas – 70, Oklahoma – 68
Actual Score: Texas – 75, Oklahoma – 72

2019 Model Pick Record: 52-23

TODAY’S GAMES

There are no currently tournament-relevant games being played today.

Games to Watch (1/19/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

Maryland (15-3) @ Ohio State (12-4)

Projected Score: Ohio State – 71, Maryland – 69
Actual Score: Maryland – 75, Ohio State – 61

2019 Model Pick Record: 45-20

TODAY’S GAMES

Michigan (17-0) @ Wisconsin (11-6)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Michigan – 67, Wisconsin – 63

Alabama (11-5) @ Tennessee (15-1)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: Tennessee – 82, Alabama – 68

Indiana (12-5) @ Purdue (11-6)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox
Projected Score: Purdue – 76, Indiana – 69

Pittsburgh (12-5) @ Syracuse (12-5)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: ACC Network
Projected Score: Syracuse – 71, Pittsburgh – 63

Kentucky (13-3) @ Auburn (13-3)

Tip Time: 4 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Auburn – 76, Kentucky – 73

TCU (13-3) @ Kansas State (13-4)

Tip Time: 4 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: TCU – 68, Kansas State – 67

St. John’s (15-3) @ Butler (11-7)

Tip Time: 4:30 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox
Projected Score: Butler – 77, St. John’s – 73

Virginia (16-0) @ Duke (14-2)

Tip Time: 6 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Duke – 70, Virginia – 68

Furman (15-3) @ Wofford (14-4)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN3
Projected Score: Wofford – 76, Furman – 69

Oklahoma (13-4) @ Texas (10-7)

Tip Time: 8 PM EST
TV Channel: Longhorn Network
Projected Score: Texas – 70, Oklahoma – 68

Projecting the 2016 NCAA Tournament Champion

After a great deal of hours put into data compilation, statistical analysis, and number crunching, I have finished my model. My goal was to be able to compile a formula that projects the likelihood that any one of the given teams in the field of 68 wins the NCAA Tournament. There are a good amount of extra variables, such as distance traveled and overall team tournament experience, that I wished to include. However, I was not able to compile some of these due to time constraints and my bracketology work.

In the end, the final version of the model includes a whopping 29 variables. The data collected and analyzed featured statistics and results from the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments ranging from 2010 to 2015. Based on previous years, it appears that the most important variables in determining a team’s likelihood of making the final four include: strength of schedule, preseason AP poll points, offensive and defensive efficiency, and offensive rebound percentage. Once a team makes the final four, the amount of tournament wins and the tournament winning percentage of the coach of each team becomes more relevant.

Tournament Projections

Do with the information and projections above what you will, and good luck to anyone filling out  a bracket – March is the best time of the year!