Games to Watch (1/27/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

Iowa State (14-5) @ Ole Miss (14-4)

Projected Score: Ole Miss – 74, Iowa State – 72
Actual Score: Iowa State – 87, Ole Miss – 73

Florida (11-7) @ TCU (14-4)

Projected Score: TCU – 70, Florida – 65
Actual Score: TCU – 55, Florida – 50

Ohio State (12-6) @ Nebraska (13-6)

Projected Score: Nebraska – 73, Ohio State – 64
Actual Score: Ohio State – 70, Nebraska – 60

Alabama (12-6) @ Baylor (12-6)

Projected Score: Baylor – 72, Alabama – 68
Actual Score: Baylor – 73, Alabama – 68

Pittsburgh (12-7) @ Louisville (14-5)

Projected Score: Louisville – 77, Pittsburgh – 66
Actual Score: Louisville – 66, Pittsburgh – 51

Davidson (14-5) @ Saint Louis (14-5)

Projected Score: Saint Louis – 66, Davidson – 63
Actual Score: Davidson – 54, Saint Louis – 53

VCU (13-6) @ Duquesne (14-5)

Projected Score: VCU – 71, Duquesne – 67
Actual Score: VCU – 80, Duquesne – 74

Kansas (16-3) @ Kentucky (15-3)

Projected Score: Kentucky – 76, Kansas – 71
Actual Score: Kentucky – 71, Kansas – 63

Vermont (15-5) @ Stony Brook (17-3)

Projected Score: Vermont – 69, Stony Brook – 68
Actual Score: Vermont – 73, Stony Brook – 52

Syracuse (14-5) @ Virginia Tech (15-3)

Projected Score: Virginia Tech – 72, Syracuse – 63
Actual Score: Virginia Tech – 78, Syracuse – 56

Auburn (13-5) @ Mississippi State (14-4)

Projected Score: Mississippi State – 76, Auburn – 75
Actual Score: Mississippi State – 92, Auburn – 84

2019 Model Pick Record: 76-30

TODAY’S GAMES

Cincinnati (17-3) @ Temple (15-4)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS Sports Network
Projected Score: Cincinnati – 71, Temple – 68

Michigan State (18-2) @ Purdue (13-6)

Tip Time: 1 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS
Projected Score: Michigan State – 76, Purdue – 73

Seton Hall (12-7) @ Villanova (15-4)

Tip Time: 2:30 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox
Projected Score: Villanova – 78, Seton Hall – 69

Iowa (16-4) @ Minnesota (14-5)

Tip Time: 5 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
Projected Score: Iowa – 76, Minnesota – 75

Games to Watch (1/26/2019)

Starting this season, I’ve decided to catalog the most tournament-relevant games to watch (if there are any) each night, along with the tip-off time, TV channel, and projected score of the game when input into my own personal game-scoring model. I will also revisit the projections from the day before to archive their accuracy.

YESTERDAY’S GAMES

Michigan (18-1) @ Indiana (12-7)

Projected Score: Michigan – 68, Indiana – 64
Actual Score: Michigan – 69, Indiana – 46

Buffalo (17-2) @ Kent State (15-4)

Projected Score: Buffalo – 82, Kent State – 74
Actual Score: Buffalo – 88, Kent State – 79

Butler (12-8) @ Creighton (11-8)

Projected Score: Creighton – 78, Butler – 77
Actual Score: Creighton – 75, Butler – 61

2019 Model Pick Record: 68-27

TODAY’S GAMES

Iowa State (14-5) @ Ole Miss (14-4)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Ole Miss – 74, Iowa State – 72

Florida (11-7) @ TCU (14-4)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN2
Projected Score: TCU – 70, Florida – 65

Ohio State (12-6) @ Nebraska (13-6)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
Projected Score: Nebraska – 73, Ohio State – 64

Alabama (12-6) @ Baylor (12-6)

Tip Time: 12 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPNU
Projected Score: Baylor – 72, Alabama – 68

Pittsburgh (12-7) @ Louisville (14-5)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: ACC Network
Projected Score: Louisville – 77, Pittsburgh – 66

Davidson (14-5) @ Saint Louis (14-5)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: CBS Sports Network
Projected Score: Saint Louis – 66, Davidson – 63

VCU (13-6) @ Duquesne (14-5)

Tip Time: 2 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN+
Projected Score: VCU – 71, Duquesne – 67

Kansas (16-3) @ Kentucky (15-3)

Tip Time: 6 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Kentucky – 76, Kansas – 71

Vermont (15-5) @ Stony Brook (17-3)

Tip Time: 7 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN3
Projected Score: Vermont – 69, Stony Brook – 68

Syracuse (14-5) @ Virginia Tech (15-3)

Tip Time: 8 PM EST
TV Channel: ESPN
Projected Score: Virginia Tech – 72, Syracuse – 63

Auburn (13-5) @ Mississippi State (14-4)

Tip Time: 8:30 PM EST
TV Channel: SEC Network
Projected Score: Mississippi State – 76, Auburn – 75

Projecting the 2016 NCAA Tournament Champion

After a great deal of hours put into data compilation, statistical analysis, and number crunching, I have finished my model. My goal was to be able to compile a formula that projects the likelihood that any one of the given teams in the field of 68 wins the NCAA Tournament. There are a good amount of extra variables, such as distance traveled and overall team tournament experience, that I wished to include. However, I was not able to compile some of these due to time constraints and my bracketology work.

In the end, the final version of the model includes a whopping 29 variables. The data collected and analyzed featured statistics and results from the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments ranging from 2010 to 2015. Based on previous years, it appears that the most important variables in determining a team’s likelihood of making the final four include: strength of schedule, preseason AP poll points, offensive and defensive efficiency, and offensive rebound percentage. Once a team makes the final four, the amount of tournament wins and the tournament winning percentage of the coach of each team becomes more relevant.

Tournament Projections

Do with the information and projections above what you will, and good luck to anyone filling out  a bracket – March is the best time of the year!

 

1-3-1 Sports Midweek Review

THE 1-3-1 MIDWEEK REVIEW

1 Thought From the Games Earlier this Week

The triple overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma was the most intriguing non-tournament game I’ve watched since 2009. I remember it like it was yesterday – going back and forth between my friend’s dorm and my own during my freshman year of college, clamoring for overtime again and again, and getting my wish six times over. The game that took place Monday night at Phog Allen Fieldhouse forced flashbacks upon me, as both teams played great basketball, but neither team could seal the deal, with both given multiple opportunities. Buddy Hield’s performance, even in the face of defeat, was strong enough that he is my current front-runner for the Naismith POY award. After the game, Hield, who played 54 of the 55 minutes, said that all he wanted was a bed. Now he knows how Jonny Flynn felt on the fateful March night at MSG; he played 67 of 70 minutes!

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3 Games to Watch this Week

i. Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Saturday @ 3 pm EST, TV – ESPNU)
I’m not sure a team can go undefeated in any more of a low-key fashion than what the Gamecocks have accomplished so far this year (though SMU is actually competitive in this regard due to their sanctions). The knock on Frank Martin’s team is that they’ve beaten exactly zero teams inside the RPI top-75 as of the writing of this article. Enter Vanderbilt, whose SOS is a stark contrast, and whose record isn’t quite as pretty. The Commodores haven’t beaten any tournament teams, but they’ve played plenty (including Kansas, Baylor, and Dayton) very tough; don’t think for a second that the committee ignores close, quality losses. If nothing else, this game is worth watching to see if South Carolina can keep a zero in the loss column… and to see how red Frank Martin’s face gets on a scale from tomato to fire engine.

ii. Arizona @ USC (Saturday @ 7 pm EST, TV – PACN)
If you work a regular 9 to 5 and you’re living East of the Mississippi, it’s difficult to catch a lot of West coast basketball during the week; this is why I picked a Saturday game for you to watch. Arizona, per usual, is widely considered the class of the teams out West. USC, on the other hand, appears to have finally (maybe) fielded a team that won’t finish dead last in the Pac-12 under former Dunk City legend Andy Enfield. USC has an opportunity to add their first signature win to a resume that currently barely has them on the right side of the bubble. The current over/under on number of times the TV cameras pan to Amanda Enfield: 2.5 – it’s only so low because this isn’t an ESPN broadcast.

iii. Villanova @ Butler (Sunday @ 7:30 pm EST, TV – FS1)
I mentioned a lot of Big East teams, players, and games in last week’s edition of the Midweek Review, but can you blame me? The conference has had a lot of great early season action to discuss, and this game is no different. The Wildcats sit alone atop the Big East standings at 3-0, while the Bulldogs have stumbled to a 1-2 start in conference play… who could’ve possibly saw that coming!? (For that answer and more, please see last week’s edition of the 1-3-1 Midweek Review.) Villanova has the metrics and the talent to join Xavier in the push for a one-seed come March, and a win on the road at Hinkle would be another notch in George Clooney’s Jay Wright’s surely well-manicured belt.

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1 Bold Prediction for the Week

Wichita State goes into Carbondale and shocks (see what I did there?) the Salukis to take control of the Missouri Valley. Fred VanVleet is finally rounding into form after a hamstring injury sidelined him for a couple weeks earlier this season. Since his return, the Shockers are 7-1, including last night’s huge victory over a greatly improved Evansville squad. The great equalizer for the Salukis is Anthony Beane, who’s currently averaging 21 points per game, including a blazing 46% from behind the arc, all while launching nearly 6 attempts per game. This year’s edition of Wichita State is not comparable to Gregg Marshall’s squads from the past few seasons, but I still believe they are the class of the MVC.

The Daily 1-3-1 (February 11th)

1  Thought from the Games Last Night

Can a 3-point overtime loss (on the road) to an in-state rival (that’s also a tournament team) really drop you a seed line?

I don’t know if I have a definitive answer to that question just yet, because I have to see how the rest of the week’s games play out. However, the Jayhawk faithful may not like the conclusion I am leaning towards at this very moment. Last night’s loss in Manhattan was the sixth loss of the year for Kansas, and it’s hard for me to see an 18-6 team deserving a 2-seed, even with the brutally tough schedule they’ve played to this point.

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3  Games to Watch Tonight

i. (15) Michigan @ (22) Ohio State, ESPN – 9 PM
The stakes aren’t quite as high when these two bitter rivals meet on the hardwood as opposed to the gridiron, but I’m sure the game is bound to get quite chippy. These two teams are also trending in opposite directions. After a demoralizing home loss to Penn State, Ohio State has righted the ship with 3 wins in a row, including road wins against Wisconsin and Iowa. Michigan, on the other hand, has loss two of three, after starting 8-0 in conference.

ii. Oklahoma State @ (19) Texas, ESPN2 – 7 PM
The Marcus Smart shoving incident was blown way out of proportion, but that’s a tangent I may address on another day. Nonetheless, Smart’s three-game suspension is going to have a major impact on the Cowboys, who have to prevent the wheels from completely falling off in his absence. In their first game sans their star, OK State faces a stern road test against the surprising Longhorns. It’s not an NCAA tournament game, so I’m sure Rick Barnes will actually have the squad ready to roll this evening.

iii. (3) Florida @ Tennessee, ESPN – 7 PM
Tennessee is that relative that you’re pretty sure has bipolar disorder – you just keep your mouth shut and enjoy the entertaining portion of their performances. Florida is that affluent, well-spoken relative that has had a great deal of consistent success in their life. The family is having a cozy little get-together in Knoxville tonight; we’ll see if the bi-polar relative smashes out the windows on the affluent relative’s Mercedes, or if the affluent relative will overwhelm all their cousins with their general aura and power.

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1  Bold Prediction for Tonight’s Slate

The Gators go on the road and hang a 15+ point beatdown on the Volunteers, further muddling Tennessee’s perplexing bubble résumé.

Billy Donovan’s squad is far better than every other team in the SEC, save Kentucky. Whether that speaks more about the lack of depth in the SEC, or the strength of Florida, I’m not sure… I guess we’ll find out in March!