Projecting the 2016 NCAA Tournament Champion

After a great deal of hours put into data compilation, statistical analysis, and number crunching, I have finished my model. My goal was to be able to compile a formula that projects the likelihood that any one of the given teams in the field of 68 wins the NCAA Tournament. There are a good amount of extra variables, such as distance traveled and overall team tournament experience, that I wished to include. However, I was not able to compile some of these due to time constraints and my bracketology work.

In the end, the final version of the model includes a whopping 29 variables. The data collected and analyzed featured statistics and results from the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments ranging from 2010 to 2015. Based on previous years, it appears that the most important variables in determining a team’s likelihood of making the final four include: strength of schedule, preseason AP poll points, offensive and defensive efficiency, and offensive rebound percentage. Once a team makes the final four, the amount of tournament wins and the tournament winning percentage of the coach of each team becomes more relevant.

Tournament Projections

Do with the information and projections above what you will, and good luck to anyone filling out  a bracket – March is the best time of the year!

 

1-3-1 Sports Midweek Review

THE 1-3-1 MIDWEEK REVIEW

 

1 Thought From the Games Earlier this Week

Chaos is king in college basketball this season. Filling out your bracket in any given season is a crapshoot, and in that sense, this season will be no different. However, with the two big changes to the game this season, (the 30-second shot clock [LOVE] and the freedom of movement rules [MEH]), we’re seeing significantly more mayhem than in past years. As with any major change, it takes time to iron out the kinks and stabilize what we expect as the norm. Thus, I anticipate that this pandemonium will continue through tournament time. Last night alone provides an example of some of the shocking upsets we’ve seen so far this season. A hot and cold Texas team won on the road against a West Virginia team who handily took care of Kansas one week prior, while the Spartans of Michigan State suffered their second straight one-point defeat, this one coming at home at the hands of a borderline-NIT Nebraska team.

—————————————

3 Games to Watch this Week

i. Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s (Thursday @ 11 pm EST, TV – ESPNU)
I know, I know, this game doesn’t start until 11 PM EST and you have to work tomorrow… cry me a river; it really should be of the utmost quality. This game between the Zags and the Gaels is for the outright lead in the West Coast Conference. Here is my pretend shocked face:

taylor-swift-1432413

These two teams are always the class of this conference, and this year is no different. Gonzaga isn’t quite the same team without Przemek Karnowski to come off the bench and be extra, super tall and do extra, super tall guy things. That being said, they still have a POY candidate in Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer, and Lithuanian sensation and double-double machine Domantas Sabonis. The Gaels counter with Emmett Naar, another Australian pipeliner that has what the analysts love to call “in-the-gym” type shooting range.

ii. Oklahoma @ Baylor (Saturday @ 12:00 pm EST, TV – ESPN2)
Based on a relatively favorable start to their conference schedule, the Baylor Bears sit alone atop the Big 12 conference. If they wish to remain there, they’ll have to protect their home court and knock off the temporarily top-ranked Sooners. I anticipate Oklahoma will come out pretty fired up for this game, coming off an embarrassing defensive effort in their loss to Iowa State on Monday night. Scott Drew’s Baylor squad is very well-rounded, with four players averaging double-figure scoring per game. Of these four, I look for the Bears to channel their success through Rico Gathers, who will easily be the most physically-imposing player on the court.

iii. Maryland @ Michigan State (Saturday @ 6:30 pm EST, TV – ESPN)
After starting the season 16-0, the Spartans have stumbled their way to a 3-4 start in conference play. Of the four losses, none was more frustrating for Spartan fans than the home loss to Nebraska last night. This loss marks the second time in three years Tim Miles has led the Cornhuskers to victory over Tom Izzo and his squad in East Lansing. Michigan State will have the perfect opportunity to gain a rebound victory, as College Gameday joins Maryland in coming to town for this heavyweight match-up. Maryland, led by the underachieving Melo Trimble and the constantly improving Diamond Stone, will look for a victory to keep pace with Indiana and Iowa in the Big 10 race.

—————————————

1 Bold Prediction for the Week

Ben Bentil will put up 20+ points and 8+ boards, but all will be for naught in the face of a Villanova victory. The Wildcats of Villanova play host to the Friars of Providence at the Wells Fargo Center at 1 PM on Sunday. Providence has had an intriguing last four games, going 2-2 in a stretch where every game has been decided by single digits. While Kris Dunn’s name is the one that grabs headlines because of his NBA potential, Ben Bentil has quietly developed into a Robin role on the team. With Jay Wright sure to key in on stopping Dunn, it seems that Bentil will have a ripe opportunity to put up some double-double type numbers against Nova. In the end, however, I do believe the Wildcats will add another solid victory to their resume and maintain a zero in the loss column in Big East conference play.

Final Score:
Villanova – 76
Providence – 70

1-3-1 Sports Midweek Review

THE 1-3-1 MIDWEEK REVIEW

1 Thought From the Games Earlier this Week

The triple overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma was the most intriguing non-tournament game I’ve watched since 2009. I remember it like it was yesterday – going back and forth between my friend’s dorm and my own during my freshman year of college, clamoring for overtime again and again, and getting my wish six times over. The game that took place Monday night at Phog Allen Fieldhouse forced flashbacks upon me, as both teams played great basketball, but neither team could seal the deal, with both given multiple opportunities. Buddy Hield’s performance, even in the face of defeat, was strong enough that he is my current front-runner for the Naismith POY award. After the game, Hield, who played 54 of the 55 minutes, said that all he wanted was a bed. Now he knows how Jonny Flynn felt on the fateful March night at MSG; he played 67 of 70 minutes!

—————————————

3 Games to Watch this Week

i. Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Saturday @ 3 pm EST, TV – ESPNU)
I’m not sure a team can go undefeated in any more of a low-key fashion than what the Gamecocks have accomplished so far this year (though SMU is actually competitive in this regard due to their sanctions). The knock on Frank Martin’s team is that they’ve beaten exactly zero teams inside the RPI top-75 as of the writing of this article. Enter Vanderbilt, whose SOS is a stark contrast, and whose record isn’t quite as pretty. The Commodores haven’t beaten any tournament teams, but they’ve played plenty (including Kansas, Baylor, and Dayton) very tough; don’t think for a second that the committee ignores close, quality losses. If nothing else, this game is worth watching to see if South Carolina can keep a zero in the loss column… and to see how red Frank Martin’s face gets on a scale from tomato to fire engine.

ii. Arizona @ USC (Saturday @ 7 pm EST, TV – PACN)
If you work a regular 9 to 5 and you’re living East of the Mississippi, it’s difficult to catch a lot of West coast basketball during the week; this is why I picked a Saturday game for you to watch. Arizona, per usual, is widely considered the class of the teams out West. USC, on the other hand, appears to have finally (maybe) fielded a team that won’t finish dead last in the Pac-12 under former Dunk City legend Andy Enfield. USC has an opportunity to add their first signature win to a resume that currently barely has them on the right side of the bubble. The current over/under on number of times the TV cameras pan to Amanda Enfield: 2.5 – it’s only so low because this isn’t an ESPN broadcast.

iii. Villanova @ Butler (Sunday @ 7:30 pm EST, TV – FS1)
I mentioned a lot of Big East teams, players, and games in last week’s edition of the Midweek Review, but can you blame me? The conference has had a lot of great early season action to discuss, and this game is no different. The Wildcats sit alone atop the Big East standings at 3-0, while the Bulldogs have stumbled to a 1-2 start in conference play… who could’ve possibly saw that coming!? (For that answer and more, please see last week’s edition of the 1-3-1 Midweek Review.) Villanova has the metrics and the talent to join Xavier in the push for a one-seed come March, and a win on the road at Hinkle would be another notch in George Clooney’s Jay Wright’s surely well-manicured belt.

—————————————

1 Bold Prediction for the Week

Wichita State goes into Carbondale and shocks (see what I did there?) the Salukis to take control of the Missouri Valley. Fred VanVleet is finally rounding into form after a hamstring injury sidelined him for a couple weeks earlier this season. Since his return, the Shockers are 7-1, including last night’s huge victory over a greatly improved Evansville squad. The great equalizer for the Salukis is Anthony Beane, who’s currently averaging 21 points per game, including a blazing 46% from behind the arc, all while launching nearly 6 attempts per game. This year’s edition of Wichita State is not comparable to Gregg Marshall’s squads from the past few seasons, but I still believe they are the class of the MVC.