College Basketball | 1-3-1 Sports

1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 14th

Posted on December 14, 2017 by JLCS

Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Finally, operation and maintenance of this site takes time and money. So, if you are willing, please make a small donation towards keeping the site up and running by clicking on the donation button on the sidebar. Let the fun begin!

THE BRACKET

Bracket 121417

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

The 2 Seeds

Arizona State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Wichita State

The 3 Seeds

West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

The 4 Seeds

Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Purdue, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Minnesota

The 6 Seeds

Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, Florida

The 7 Seeds

Florida State, Arkansas, Nevada, Baylor

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Missouri, Syracuse, Butler, Virginia Tech

The 10 Seeds

Michigan, Providence, USC, Temple

The 11 Seeds

Texas, Rhode Island, Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Boise State

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Georgia Southern, Loyola-Chicago

The 13 Seeds

Towson, Mercer, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, Northern Kentucky, Bucknell, Ball State

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota, Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Iona, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Boise State

First Four Out

UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), St. John’s, Utah

Next Four Out

Auburn, Oregon, South Carolina, Georgia

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (3), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – Towson

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Pennslyvania

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Georgia Southern

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 13th

Posted on December 13, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Bracket 121317

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

The 2 Seeds

Arizona State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Wichita State

The 3 Seeds

West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

The 4 Seeds

Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Purdue, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Minnesota

The 6 Seeds

Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, Florida

The 7 Seeds

Florida State, Arkansas, Nevada, Baylor

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Missouri, Syracuse, Butler, Virginia Tech

The 10 Seeds

Temple, Michigan, Providence, USC

The 11 Seeds

Texas, Rhode Island, Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Boise State

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Georgia Southern, Loyola-Chicago

The 13 Seeds

Towson, Mercer, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, Northern Kentucky, Bucknell, Ball State

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota, Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Iona, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Boise State

First Four Out

UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), St. John’s, Utah

Next Four Out

Auburn, Oregon, South Carolina, Georgia

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (3), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – Towson

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Pennslyvania

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Georgia Southern

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 12th

Posted on December 12, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Bracket 121217

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

The 2 Seeds

Arizona State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Wichita State

The 3 Seeds

West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

The 4 Seeds

Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Purdue, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Minnesota

The 6 Seeds

Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, Florida

The 7 Seeds

Florida State, Arkansas, Nevada, Baylor

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Texas, Missouri, Syracuse, Butler

The 10 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Temple, Providence, USC

The 11 Seeds

Rhode Island, Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Boise State

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Texas-Arlington, Loyola-Chicago

The 13 Seeds

Mercer, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, Ball State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota, Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Monmouth, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Boise State

First Four Out

UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), St. John’s, Utah

Next Four Out

Auburn, Oregon, Mississippi State, South Carolina

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (3), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Pennslyvania

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Texas-Arlington

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 11th

Posted on December 11, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Bracket 121117

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

The 2 Seeds

Arizona State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Wichita State

The 3 Seeds

West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

The 4 Seeds

Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Purdue, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Minnesota

The 6 Seeds

Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, Florida

The 7 Seeds

Florida State, Arkansas, Nevada, Baylor

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Texas, Missouri, Syracuse, Butler

The 10 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Temple, Providence, USC

The 11 Seeds

Rhode Island, Clemson, Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Boise State

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Texas-Arlington, Loyola-Chicago

The 13 Seeds

Mercer, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, Ball State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota, Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Monmouth, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Boise State

First Four Out

UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), St. John’s, Utah

Next Four Out

Auburn, Oregon, Mississippi State, South Carolina

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (3), Mountain West (2)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Pennslyvania

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago

Mountain West – Nevada, Boise State

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Texas-Arlington

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 10th

Posted on December 10, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Next Bracket will be released 12/11/17.

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, Kansas

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Wichita State, Texas A&M, West Virginia

The 3 Seeds

Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier, Miami (FL)

The 4 Seeds

Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Purdue

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Minnesota

The 6 Seeds

Texas Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, Florida

The 7 Seeds

Arkansas, Nevada, Baylor, Florida State

The 8 Seeds

Oklahoma, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Texas, Missouri, Syracuse, Butler

The 10 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Temple, Providence, USC

The 11 Seeds

Rhode Island, Clemson, Maryland, SMU, St. John’s, Michigan

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Texas-Arlington, Missouri State

The 13 Seeds

Mercer, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, Ball State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston

The 15 Seeds

South Dakota, Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Pennsylvania

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Monmouth, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Maryland, SMU, St. John’s, Michigan

First Four Out

UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), Utah, Boise State

Next Four Out

Auburn, Oregon, Mississippi State, South Carolina

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (3)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler, St. John’s

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Pennslyvania

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Missouri State

Mountain West – Nevada

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Texas-Arlington

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 9th

Posted on December 9, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Next Bracket will be released 12/11/17.

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Duke, Villanova, Michigan State, Kansas

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Wichita State, Texas A&M, West Virginia

The 3 Seeds

Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier, Miami (FL)

The 4 Seeds

Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Arizona State

The 5 Seeds

Purdue, TCU, Minnesota, Texas Tech

The 6 Seeds

Arkansas, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Arizona

The 7 Seeds

Nevada, Baylor, Florida State, Oklahoma

The 8 Seeds

Florida, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Texas, Missouri, Syracuse, Providence

The 10 Seeds

Butler, Virginia Tech, USC, Temple

The 11 Seeds

UCLA, Rhode Island, Clemson, St. John’s, Maryland, SMU

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Texas-Arlington, Missouri State

The 13 Seeds

Mercer, South Dakota, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, New Mexico State, Yale, College of Charleston

The 15 Seeds

Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Ball State, Florida Gulf Coast

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Monmouth, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Clemson, St. John’s, Maryland, SMU

First Four Out

Utah, Oregon, Washington State, Mississippi State

Next Four Out

South Carolina, Valparaiso, Michigan, St. Mary’s (CA)

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (4)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler, St. John’s

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Missouri State

Mountain West – Nevada

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC, UCLA

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Texas-Arlington

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – December 8th

Posted on December 8, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Bracket 120817

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Duke, Villanova, Michigan State, Kansas

The 2 Seeds

North Carolina, Wichita State, Texas A&M, West Virginia

The 3 Seeds

Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier, Miami (FL)

The 4 Seeds

Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Purdue

The 5 Seeds

TCU, Arizona State, Minnesota, Texas Tech

The 6 Seeds

Arkansas, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Arizona

The 7 Seeds

Nevada, USC, Baylor, Florida State

The 8 Seeds

Florida, Creighton, Louisville, Alabama

The 9 Seeds

Texas, Missouri, Syracuse, Providence

The 10 Seeds

Butler, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Temple

The 11 Seeds

St. John’s, Rhode Island, Clemson, UCLA, Maryland, SMU

The 12 Seeds

Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Texas-Arlington, Missouri State

The 13 Seeds

Mercer, South Dakota, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky

The 14 Seeds

Belmont, New Mexico State, Yale, College of Charleston

The 15 Seeds

Idaho, Stephen F. Austin, Ball State, Florida Gulf Coast

The 16 Seeds

NC-Asheville, Monmouth, UC Santa Barbara, St. Francis (PA), Texas Southern, North Carolina Central

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Clemson, UCLA, Maryland, SMU

First Four Out

Utah, Washington State, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Next Four Out

Oregon, Valparaiso, Michigan, St. Mary’s (CA)

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (4)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson

America East – Vermont

American – Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler, St. John’s

Big Sky – Idaho

Big South – NC-Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland

Big West – UC Santa Barbara

Colonial – College of Charleston

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Yale

MAAC – Monmouth

MAC – Ball State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Missouri State

Mountain West – Nevada

Northeast – St. Francis (PA)

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Arizona State, Arizona, USC, UCLA

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Missouri

Southern – Mercer

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – South Dakota

Sun Belt – Texas-Arlington

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga

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How to Win Your Bracket Pool

Posted on March 13, 2017 by JLCS

Before you begin reading this article, I want to make one thing abundantly clear: I’m not telling you how to fill out the perfect bracket; that’s impossible (insert cliche about the astronomically small odds of this ever happening). Rather, I’m giving you statistically sound, pragmatic advice on how to win your bracket pool between you and your friends (and the spoils that come along with it). If you follow these foolproof steps, you should finish at (or at the very least near) the top:

Step 1: Advance all 1 and 2 seeds to the Sweet 16.

Okay, I know, this is super chalky and people may rag on you for making this move. Furthermore, the odds are heavily against all eight 1 and 2 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. However, picking which 1 or 2 seed is going to get upset is a fool’s gambit. You put yourself at risk of losing easy points that your opponents will gain. You’re better off taking a couple gambles in other early round games, and just playing it close to the vest here.

To further drive home my point, consider this – in the last eight tournaments, 48 of the 64 teams (75%) on the 1 and 2 seed line advanced to the Sweet 16. If you can essentially lock in 6 correct teams in your predicted Sweet 16, you should do it.

Step 2: Advance all 3 and 4 seeds to the second round.

The same chalkiness mentioned in step 1 definitely applies here as well, but the same logic applies as well. The difference here is that a lower seed upset over a 3 or 4 in the second round is much more likely in comparison to a similar 1 or 2 upset. Thus, auto-advancing the 3 and 4 seeds should only apply to the first round. It’s fun bragging about being the one person who accurately picked the crazy 14 over 3 upset, but you know what’s more fun? Bragging about winning your bracket pool.

In a similar fashion to step 1, I really want to drive home this point as well. In the last eight tournaments, 52 of the 64 teams (81%) on the 3 and 4 seed line advanced to the second round.

Step 3: Use the following statistical data to pick the 7/10 and 8/9 games.

In years past, I focused my statistical analysis of college basketball on simply trying to build a predictive model to attempt to reveal who was going to win the entire NCAA tournament. This year, I wanted to go more in-depth and try to find predictive variables and isolate patterns based on recent historic results in order to attempt to predict these first round coin flip games. Doing this will allow the individual team match-ups to come into play, rather than simply projecting which teams have the best chance to advance the furthest, regardless of opponent.

I used historic tournament results from 7/10 and 8/9 games that took play between 2010 to 2016. These games were batched together in order to increase the predictive power of the model. Upon completion of my model, the following variables demonstrated predictive power in these match-ups:

Strength of Schedule
Pace
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Efficiency Margin
Turnover %
Wins
Offensive Rebound %
Effective 3-Point Rate

After inputting the 2016-2017 statistics for all of the 7 through 10 seeds in this year’s tournament, my model yielded the following results:

Step 4: Use the following statistical data to pick the 5/12 and 6/11 games.

In a similar vein to the 7/10 and 8/9 games, I wanted to use historic tournament results to attempt to find the most likely upset specials in the 5/12 and 6/11 games. Predicting these games will use the same variables listed above, but with different multiplicative factors attached to each variable. The predictive accuracy in 5/12 and 6/11 games is more volatile than their coin-flip counterparts, but that is to be expected, as the games themselves tend to be more volatile.

After inputting the 2016-2017 statistics for all of the 5, 6, 11, and 12 seeds in this year’s tournament, my model yielded the following results:

Step 5: Your final four should consist of some combination of the following teams.

As I mentioned above, I previously developed a predictive model to attempt to project who has the best chance of advancing far into the tournament, regardless of match-up. I refined the past model to further optimize the predictive results, then normalized the projections for each region to create a probability of reaching the final four for every team in the tournament. Below are charts that feature every eligible team (all non-double digit seeds not excluded by the steps above) separated by region:

(I recommend selecting a team with at least a 10% chance of advancing to the Final Four)

Step 6: Your national champion should be one of the following teams.

The same predictive model from step 5 applies here in step 6. The analysis of all the factors that are most predictive when projecting a national champion is the area where I have committed the most time and performed the most research. This is not coincidence, as this is the most valuable prediction when it comes to winning your bracket pool. Below is a chart that features every eligible team (not excluded by the steps above) in the tournament that has at least a 0.5% chance of winning the tournament:

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 12th (Final)

Posted on March 12, 2017 by JLCS

THE BRACKET

Bracket 031217

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2 Seeds

Arizona, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon

The 3 Seeds

Baylor, Louisville, UCLA, Florida State

The 4 Seeds

Florida, Butler, West Virginia, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

Purdue, Virginia, SMU, Iowa State

The 6 Seeds

Cincinnati, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin

The 7 Seeds

Creighton, St. Mary’s (CA), Maryland, Arkansas

The 8 Seeds

Wichita State, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Northwestern

The 9 Seeds

Dayton, VCU, South Carolina, Oklahoma State

The 10 Seeds

Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier, Vanderbilt

The 11 Seeds

Michigan State, Rhode Island, Middle Tennessee, Providence, Wake Forest

The 12 Seeds

NC-Wilmington, Nevada, USC, Kansas State, Vermont

The 13 Seeds

Princeton, Bucknell, East Tennessee State, Winthrop

The 14 Seeds

Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Iona, Northern Kentucky

The 15 Seeds

Kent State, Texas Southern, North Dakota, Troy

The 16 Seeds

Jacksonville State, New Orleans, North Carolina Central, Mount St. Mary’s, UC Davis, South Dakota State

—————————————————————-

BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

Providence, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State

First Four Out

Illinois State, Syracuse, California, Iowa

Next Four Out

Houston, Georgia, TCU, Illinois

—————————————————————

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (9), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

America East – Vermont

American – SMU, Cincinnati

Atlantic 10 – Dayton, VCU, Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Big East – Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence

Big Sky – North Dakota

Big South – Winthrop

Big Ten – Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Princeton

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Kent State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State

Mountain West – Nevada

Northeast – Mount St. Mary’s

Ohio Valley – Jacksonville State

Pac-12 – Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – East Tennessee State

Southland – New Orleans

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Troy

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)

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1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 12th (AM)

Posted on March 12, 2017 by JLCS

Please Note: This bracket and group of seed lines is preliminary and is subject to change as I do further scrubbing and as today’s conference championship results go final.

THE BRACKET

Bracket 031217 (AM)

PROJECTED SEEDING

The 1 Seeds

Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona

The 2 Seeds

Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon

The 3 Seeds

Baylor, Louisville, UCLA, Florida State

The 4 Seeds

Florida, West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame

The 5 Seeds

Purdue, Virginia, Cincinnati, Iowa State

The 6 Seeds

SMU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton

The 7 Seeds

Michigan, St. Mary’s (CA), Arkansas, Maryland

The 8 Seeds

Wichita State, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, VCU

The 9 Seeds

Dayton, Northwestern, South Carolina, Oklahoma State

The 10 Seeds

Marquette, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Providence

The 11 Seeds

Xavier, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, USC, Wake Forest

The 12 Seeds

NC-Wilmington, Nevada, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Vermont

The 13 Seeds

Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Winthrop

The 14 Seeds

Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Iona, Northern Kentucky

The 15 Seeds

Kent State, Texas Southern, North Dakota, Jacksonville State

The 16 Seeds

Texas State, New Orleans, North Carolina Central, South Dakota State, Mount St. Mary’s, UC Davis

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BUBBLE ACTION

Last Four In

USC, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Kansas State

First Four Out

Illinois State, Syracuse, California, Iowa

Next Four Out

Houston, Georgia, TCU, Illinois

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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ACC (9), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

ACC – North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Wake Forest

America East – Vermont

American – Cincinnati, SMU

Atlantic 10 – Dayton, VCU, Rhode Island

Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Big East – Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier

Big Sky – North Dakota

Big South – Winthrop

Big Ten – Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State

Big West – UC Davis

Colonial – NC-Wilmington

Conference USA – Middle Tennessee

Horizon – Northern Kentucky

Ivy – Princeton

MAAC – Iona

MAC – Kent State

MEAC – North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley – Wichita State

Mountain West – Nevada

Northeast – Mount St. Mary’s

Ohio Valley – Jacksonville State

Pac-12 – Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, USC

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern – East Tennessee State

Southland – New Orleans

Summit – South Dakota State

Sun Belt – Texas State

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)