Author: JLCS
The Five Don’ts (and Do’s) of General Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
1. Don’t go in with a set plan regarding when to draft certain positions.
I’ve seen it one too many times: “I’m going RB-RB in the first two rounds” or “I’m holding off on drafting a TE until at least the seventh round!” Falling victim to such a rigid draft strategy will prevent you from optimizing your team’s full point-scoring potential. If you’re in a draft and Gronk, Kelce, or Ertz have fallen way past their ADP, pull the trigger.
2. Do draft the best available player, subject to positional needs of your team AND other teams.
Go into your draft with an open mind and take the player at your draft position that you believe will help your team score the most points from week to week. Later in the draft, drafting a player to fill out your starting lineup might make some sense. However, early on, don’t be afraid to nab your third RB or fourth WR before you draft a QB, TE, or defense. Also, be aware of the positional needs of owners around you. If you’re in the 8th spot in a 10-team league, and both owners in the 9th and 10th spot have already heavily invested in one position, odds are in your favor that you can hold off on drafting that position if the snake draft is going in that direction; wait for it to come back the other way.
3. Don’t go in with players you must absolutely have at all costs.
This is not to say that you should not have specific players that you are targeting that you like more than other owners in your league. However, if you go into your draft with must-have players, you’ll inevitably end up reaching a round or two early (or over-bidding, in the case of an auction) just to secure your guy.
4. Do go in with players you must absolutely avoid at all costs.
This is the year that _________ stays healthy and finally reaches his full potential! Sure it is. ________ is on a new team and has a new lease on his playing career, so he’s due for a bounce-back! Awesome – I’ll let you gamble on that bounce-back. Do your best to cut through the names and the hype and look at what players have done and what they’re expected to do from a strictly statistical standpoint. Don’t become overly enamored with physical measurables and potential. Compare expected volume and production to their ADP, and if their ADP is much higher than merited, simply avoid overpaying.
5. Don’t use late round picks on mediocre veterans.
They’ve been in the league for years – you know what they’re going to give you, and you know their ceiling and floor. In all likelihood, they’ll end up as nothing more than a serviceable bye week fill-in on your roster.
6. Do use late round picks on high risk, high upside players.
Unlike the abovementioned mediocre veterans, there will inevitably be some younger players available later in the draft that are greater unknowns. They certainly have a lower floor, but they also have a higher ceiling. You may drop your 11th and 13th round pick after three or four weeks, but your 12th round pick ends up as one of your top four players. Risk aversion is not something you should engage in late in the draft; be bold.
7. Don’t go into your draft without adequate preparation.
Know your league settings from top to bottom. Put in the time and due diligence to rank players and have a general draft strategy that lines up with those league settings. You don’t want to be the person who prepped for weeks for a standard draft, only to have draft day roll around and find out that you’re drafting in a 2-QB, PPR league. The savvy owners in the league will recognize it, and rib you mercilessly for it.
8. Do a mock draft or three. Get a general feel for when players are being drafted and practice adapting on the fly to unexpected events.
Try to do as many mock drafts as your free time allows that emulate your league settings as closely as possible. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com is a great place to start. Your actual league draft will inevitably unfold differently from any of the mock drafts you do beforehand. However, the goal of mock drafts isn’t to anticipate what your actual roster will look like when the real draft is over. Rather, it is to see who is going in what round (or for what amount in the case of an auction) and to practice adapting on the fly. Doing this will allow you to be prepared and ready to make timely decisions on draft day.
9. Don’t use generic rankings from some outdated magazine or website.
I love it when other owners walk into the draft room with some “foolproof” fantasy football magazine or printed sheets of paper with generic rankings from a high-traffic sports website. I love it because I know I will out-draft them. The rankings contained within these platforms do not have the most up-to-date information available, and put you at a distinct disadvantage on draft day.
10. Do use rankings developed with your league-specific settings in mind.
At this point, I’m beating a dead horse, but I really don’t care: use your league settings to your advantage. If you can use rankings based on statistical projections specific to your league settings, you’ll have a big leg up on your competition. Lucky for you, I have created a model in Microsoft Excel that allows you to do just this. It takes into account league-specific settings, player projections, and player ADPs to optimize your draft selections in each round. If you are interested in using it (free of charge), simply email me at jleecook@umich.edu.
Good luck, and happy drafting!
July 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings (PPR)
July 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings (Standard)
Fantasy Football Analysis
Starting as of Summer 2018, I will be diving into the realm of season-long and DFS Fantasy Football analysis – stay tuned!
How to Win Your Bracket Pool (2018 Edition)
Before you begin reading this article, I want to make one thing abundantly clear: I’m not telling you how to fill out the perfect bracket; that’s impossible (insert cliche about the astronomically small odds of this ever happening). Rather, I’m giving you statistically sound, pragmatic advice on how to win your bracket pool between you and your friends (and the spoils that come along with it). If you follow these foolproof steps, you should finish at (or at the very least near) the top:
Step 1: Advance all 1 and 2 seeds to the Sweet 16.
Okay, I know, this is super chalky and people may rag on you for making this move. Furthermore, the odds are heavily against all eight 1 and 2 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. However, picking which 1 or 2 seed is going to get upset is a fool’s gambit. You put yourself at risk of losing easy points that your opponents will gain. You’re better off taking a couple gambles in other early round games, and just playing it close to the vest here.
To further drive home my point, consider this – in the last nine tournaments, 53 of the 72 teams (74%) on the 1 and 2 seed line advanced to the Sweet 16. If you can essentially lock in 6 correct teams in your predicted Sweet 16, you should do it.
Step 2: Advance all 3 and 4 seeds to the second round.
The same chalkiness mentioned in step 1 definitely applies here as well, but the same logic applies as well. The difference here is that a lower seed upset over a 3 or 4 in the second round is much more likely in comparison to a similar 1 or 2 upset. Thus, auto-advancing the 3 and 4 seeds should only apply to the first round. It’s fun bragging about being the one person who accurately picked the crazy 14 over 3 upset, but you know what’s more fun? Bragging about winning your bracket pool.
In a similar fashion to step 1, I really want to drive home this point as well. In the last nine tournaments, 60 of the 72 teams (83%) on the 3 and 4 seed line advanced to the second round.
Step 3: Use the following statistical data to fill out the rest of your bracket.
(*Note*: The 0% values listed do not imply that the result cannot happen. Rather, the result is extremely unlikely [less than 0.5% likelihood])
I developed a predictive model to attempt to project who has the best chance of advancing far into the tournament. I refined the model to further optimize the predictive results, then normalized the projections for each region to create a probability of advancing in any given round for every team in the tournament. I used historic tournament results from games that took place between 2010 to 2017. The analysis of factors that are most predictive in projecting a national champion is the area where I have committed the most time and performed the most research. This is not coincidence, as this is the most valuable prediction when it comes to winning your bracket pool.

South Region

East Region

Midwest Region

West Region
Bonus: Synthesizing the above charts for people who don’t like numbers.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
- (12) New Mexico State over (5) Clemson: 58%
- (11) Arizona State/Syracuse over (6) TCU: 51%
- (11) San Diego State over (6) Houston: 41%
- (12) South Dakota State over (5) Ohio State: 41%
Toss-Up Games
- (8) Creighton over (9) Kansas State: 53%
- (7) Nevada TOSS UP (10) Texas: 50%
- (9) Alabama over (8) Virginia Tech: 55%
- (10) Butler over (7) Arkansas: 52%
- (8) Seton Hall over (9) NC State: 58%
- (7) Rhode Island over (10) Oklahoma: 65%
- (8) Missouri over (9) Florida State: 51%
- (7) Texas A&M over (10) Providence: 55%
Best Final Four Picks by Region
- South: (2) Cincinnati, (4) Arizona, (5) Kentucky, (1) Virginia
- East: (1) Villanova, (4) Wichita State, (6) Florida, (2) Purdue
- Midwest: (1) Kansas, (2) Duke, (3) Michigan State
- West: (2) North Carolina, (1) Xavier, (4) Gonzaga
Best Champion Picks
- (2) North Carolina
- (1) Villanova
- (2) Duke
- (1) Kansas
- (2) Cincinnati
- (3) Michigan State
1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 11th (Final)
Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!
THE BRACKET
Bracket 031118 (Final)
PROJECTED SEEDING
The 1 Seeds
Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 Seeds
North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue
The 3 Seeds
Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia
The 4 Seeds
Auburn, Arizona, Texas Tech, Wichita State
The 5 Seeds
Kentucky, Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State
The 6 Seeds
Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami (FL)
The 7 Seeds
Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall, Rhode Island
The 8 Seeds
Nevada, Virginia Tech, Providence, Missouri
The 9 Seeds
Butler, Alabama, Kansas State, NC State
The 10 Seeds
Creighton, Florida State, St. Bonaventure, UCLA
The 11 Seeds
Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago, Davidson
The 12 Seeds
New Mexico State, San Diego State, South Dakota State, Murray State
The 13 Seeds
Buffalo, UNC-Greensboro, Marshall, College of Charleston
The 14 Seeds
Bucknell, Montana, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin
The 15 Seeds
Georgia State, Lipscomb, Iona, Pennsylvania
The 16 Seeds
Maryland-Baltimore County, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, North Carolina Central
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BUBBLE ACTION
Last Four In
Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Arizona State
First Four Out
St. Mary’s (CA), Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out
Marquette, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame
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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (2)
ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State
America East – Maryland-Baltimore County
American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Davidson
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb
Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – Radford
Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
Big West – Cal State Fullerton
Colonial – College of Charleston
Conference USA – Marshall
Horizon – Wright State
Ivy – Pennsylvania
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Buffalo
MEAC – North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago
Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State
Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Pac-12 – Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arizona State
Patriot – Bucknell
SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama
Southern – UNC-Greensboro
Southland – Stephen F. Austin
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Georgia State
SWAC – Texas Southern
WAC – New Mexico State
WCC – Gonzaga
1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 11th (AM)
Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!
THE BRACKET
Bracket 031118 (AM)
PROJECTED SEEDING
The 1 Seeds
Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 Seeds
North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue
The 3 Seeds
Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia
The 4 Seeds
Auburn, Texas Tech, Arizona, Wichita State
The 5 Seeds
Gonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Florida
The 6 Seeds
Ohio State, Houston, Arkansas, Miami (FL)
The 7 Seeds
Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall, Rhode Island
The 8 Seeds
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Providence
The 9 Seeds
Alabama, Kansas State, Butler, NC State
The 10 Seeds
Florida State, Creighton, St. Bonaventure, UCLA
The 11 Seeds
Oklahoma, Texas, USC, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago
The 12 Seeds
San Diego State, New Mexico State, Buffalo, South Dakota State
The 13 Seeds
Murray State, Marshall, UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston
The 14 Seeds
Bucknell, Montana, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin
The 15 Seeds
Georgia State, Iona, Lipscomb, Pennsylvania
The 16 Seeds
Maryland-Baltimore County, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, North Carolina Central
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BUBBLE ACTION
Last Four In
Texas, USC, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State
First Four Out
Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Marquette
Next Four Out
Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Nebraska
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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2)
ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State
America East – Maryland-Baltimore County
American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb
Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – Radford
Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
Big West – Cal State Fullerton
Colonial – College of Charleston
Conference USA – Marshall
Horizon – Wright State
Ivy – Pennsylvania
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Buffalo
MEAC – North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago
Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State
Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Pac-12 – Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arizona State
Patriot – Bucknell
SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama
Southern – UNC-Greensboro
Southland – Stephen F. Austin
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Georgia State
SWAC – Texas Southern
WAC – New Mexico State
WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)
1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 10th
Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!
THE BRACKET
Bracket 031018
PROJECTED SEEDING
The 1 Seeds
Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 Seeds
North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
The 3 Seeds
Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia
The 4 Seeds
Wichita State, Arizona, Auburn, Texas Tech
The 5 Seeds
Gonzaga, Clemson, Florida, Kentucky
The 6 Seeds
Ohio State, Houston, Miami (FL), Arkansas
The 7 Seeds
TCU, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Rhode Island
The 8 Seeds
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Butler
The 9 Seeds
Creighton, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, NC State
The 10 Seeds
Providence, Florida State, USC, Oklahoma
The 11 Seeds
Texas, UCLA, Alabama, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Loyola-Chicago
The 12 Seeds
Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, San Diego State, Buffalo
The 13 Seeds
Murray State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Louisiana-Lafayette
The 14 Seeds
UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 Seeds
Wright State, Pennsylvania, Stephen F. Austin, Iona
The 16 Seeds
Lipscomb, Radford, UC Irvine, Hampton, LIU-Brooklyn, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
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BUBBLE ACTION
Last Four In
UCLA, Alabama, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State
First Four Out
Louisville, Baylor, Marquette, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out
Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Mississippi State
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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2)
ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State
America East – Vermont
American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb
Big 12 – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – Radford
Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
Big West – UC Davis
Colonial – College of Charleston
Conference USA – Western Kentucky
Horizon – Wright State
Ivy – Pennsylvania
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Buffalo
MEAC – Hampton
Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago
Mountain West – Nevada, San Diego State
Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Pac-12 – Arizona, USC, UCLA, Arizona State
Patriot – Bucknell
SEC – Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama
Southern – UNC-Greensboro
Southland – Stephen F. Austin
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Louisiana-Lafayette
SWAC – Arkansas-Pine Bluff
WAC – New Mexico State
WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)
1-3-1 Sports Field of 68 – March 9th
Welcome back to 1-3-1 Sports! My goal is to update my bracketology projections daily for the entirety of the season, so that my audience can have the most accurate, up-to-date picture of the college basketball landscape. As always, I’m open to feedback and ideas from readers regarding potential topics, discussions, etc. Furthermore, if any individual team blogs are interested in working in conjunction on team-specific bracketology Q&A pieces, I’d love to contribute. Let the fun begin!
THE BRACKET
Bracket 030918
PROJECTED SEEDING
The 1 Seeds
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 Seeds
Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
The 3 Seeds
Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan State, Michigan
The 4 Seeds
West Virginia, Texas Tech, Wichita State, Arizona
The 5 Seeds
Gonzaga, Florida, Clemson, Kentucky
The 6 Seeds
Ohio State, Houston, TCU, Miami (FL)
The 7 Seeds
Texas A&M, Arkansas, Nevada, Seton Hall
The 8 Seeds
Rhode Island, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Butler
The 9 Seeds
Creighton, NC State, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State
The 10 Seeds
Providence, Florida State, Texas, Oklahoma
The 11 Seeds
USC, UCLA, St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Marquette, Alabama
The 12 Seeds
Loyola-Chicago, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Buffalo
The 13 Seeds
Murray State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Louisiana-Lafayette
The 14 Seeds
UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 Seeds
UC Davis, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Lipscomb
The 16 Seeds
Iona, Radford, Nicholls State, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
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BUBBLE ACTION
Last Four In
St. Mary’s (CA), Arizona State, Marquette, Alabama
First Four Out
Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
Next Four Out
Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Oregon
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CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (4), American (3), West Coast (2)
ACC – Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), NC State
America East – Vermont
American – Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10 – Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb
Big 12 – Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas
Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Marquette
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – Radford
Big Ten – Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
Big West – UC Davis
Colonial – College of Charleston
Conference USA – Western Kentucky
Horizon – Wright State
Ivy – Pennsylvania
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Buffalo
MEAC – Hampton
Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago
Mountain West – Nevada
Northeast – LIU-Brooklyn
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Pac-12 – Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA
Patriot – Bucknell
SEC – Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Alabama
Southern – UNC-Greensboro
Southland – Nicholls State
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Louisiana-Lafayette
SWAC – Arkansas-Pine Bluff
WAC – New Mexico State
WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (CA)