I took my baseline NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament projection model and created a “high-volatility” version to produce bracket simulations so I could look for teams that are uniquely capable of making runs in this year’s tournament. I compared the results of these simulations to currently available futures on DraftKings and FanDuel to look for high leverage opportunities.

I identified four such opportunities (in order of shortest to longest odds):

• Vanderbilt advancing to the Elite 8 (-120 on DraftKings)
• Maryland advancing to the Sweet 16 (+115 on DraftKings)
• TCU advancing to the Elite 8 (+120 on FanDuel)
• Texas winning the National Championship (+850 on FanDuel)