I took the baseline model I developed for my “How to Win Your Bracket Pool” article and created a “high-volatility” version to produce bracket simulations so I could look for teams that are uniquely capable of making unexpected runs in this year’s tournament. I compared the results of these simulations to currently available Vegas futures on three sports betting websites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and MGM) to look for high leverage opportunities in the high risk/high reward space.

I identified seven such opportunities (in order of shortest to longest odds):

• Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16 (-120 on DraftKings)
• Michigan advancing to the Final 4 (-115 on MGM)
• Vanderbilt advancing to the Sweet 16 (-110 on DraftKings)
• St. John’s advancing to the Sweet 16 (-105 on DraftKings)
• Houston advancing to the Elite 8 (+110 on DraftKings)
• Virginia advancing to the Elite 8 (+325 on MGM)
• Purdue advancing to the Final 4 (+410 on FanDuel)