I took the baseline model I developed for my “How to Win Your Bracket Pool” article and created a “high-volatility” version to produce bracket simulations so I could look for teams that are uniquely capable of making unexpected runs in this year’s tournament. I compared the results of these simulations to currently available Vegas futures on the two primary sports betting websites (DraftKings & FanDuel) to look for high leverage opportunities in the high risk/high reward space.

I identified seven such opportunities (in alphabetical order):

• Alabama advancing to the Elite 8 (+120 on DraftKings)
• Colorado State advancing to the Sweet 16 (+400 on DraftKings)
• Iowa State advancing to the Elite 8 (+220 on DraftKings)
• Kansas advancing to the Sweet 16 (+240 on FanDuel)
• Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 (+120 on FanDuel)
• Texas Tech advancing to the Elite 8 (+180 on FanDuel)
• VCU advancing to the Sweet 16 (+370 on FanDuel)