I took the baseline model I developed for my “How to Win Your Bracket Pool” article and created a “high-volatility” version to produce bracket simulations so I could look for teams that are uniquely capable of making unexpected runs in this year’s tournament. I compared the results of these simulations to currently available Vegas futures on the two primary sports betting websites (DraftKings & FanDuel) to look for high leverage opportunities in the high risk/high reward space.

I identified five such opportunities (in alphabetical order):

• Colorado advancing to the Sweet 16 (+330 on FanDuel)
• Creighton advancing to the Elite 8 (+205 on both sites)
• Duke advancing to the Elite 8 (+400 on DraftKings)
• Illinois advancing to the Elite 8 (+270 on DraftKings)
• Washington State advancing to the Sweet 16 (+550 on DraftKings)